Bhubaneswar: Four Rajya Sabha seats from Odisha are set to fall vacant in April 2026, with the tenures of Muzibulla Khan (Muna), Niranjan Bishi, Sujeet Kumar, and Mamata Mahanta coming to an end. While the elections to these seats were expected to be closely contested, recent political developments have significantly altered the equation.
With the death of Nuapada BJD MLA Rajendra Dholakia September 8, the BJD’s tally in the state Assembly dropped from 51 to 50. The outcome of the upcoming by-election to the seat was supposed to decide whether the party could regain its earlier strength. However, Rajendra Dholakia’s son, Jay Dholakia, joined the BJP Saturday, fueling speculation that the BJD may no longer be intending to retain its previous numbers.
Leader of the Opposition and BJD supremo Naveen Patnaik, who had been in New Delhi since September 7, returned to Bhubaneswar Friday. Jay, who was also in the national capital around the same time, joined the BJP soon after his return. The timing has triggered talk of a possible understanding between the BJD and the BJP’s central leadership.
A senior political observer, speaking on condition of anonymity, claimed that “some form of understanding has already been reached between the two parties.” At present, the BJP has 78 MLAs, along with three Independents who are aligned with it, taking its effective strength to 81. The BJD’s count has fallen to 50 following Dholakia’s death. The Congress holds 14 seats, while the CPI(M) has one.
Based on the current numbers, a candidate requires 30 votes to win a Rajya Sabha seat. This arithmetic gives the BJP two seats comfortably, while one seat is almost certain for the BJD. The fight for the fourth seat, however, now leans in the BJP’s favor with 21 votes as against the BJD’s 20.
Initially, the BJD had planned to field Jay as its candidate for the Nuapada by-election, banking on sympathy votes. However, his joining the BJP has upended that strategy. What seemed certain until Thursday turned uncertain the very next day, coinciding with Patnaik’s return from Delhi.
Had the Nuapada seat remained with the BJD until the Rajya Sabha polls, the party would likely have needed the backing of the Congress and CPI(M) to claim the fourth seat. But given the BJD’s neutral stance during the Congress’ no-confidence motion against the state government in the Assembly and its abstention in the recent vice presidential election—moves seen as indirectly favoring the BJP—political observers believe the BJD is unlikely to take Congress help to claim the fourth seat.
The scenario might have been different had Rajendra Dholakia still been alive, as the numbers would have forced the BJD into a tougher contest. The party’s earlier gestures of goodwill toward the BJP—such as supporting Union Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw’s Rajya Sabha election twice despite having the numbers to field its own candidate—appear to be continuing.
In the coming Rajya Sabha polls, the BJD seems poised either to cede the fourth seat to the BJP or to refrain from contesting it aggressively. Sources indicate that a new political understanding may have been brokered through a corporate figure, reportedly being considered as the BJD’s nominee. If true, it could mark yet another chapter in the quiet cooperation between the two parties
PNN
