The recent elections in Nepal saw the Rashtriya Swatantra Party and its leader Balendra Shah win a decisive victory, ending the uncertainty after last September’s revolution and an interim government. The defeat of the current elite is indisputable and gives the new government a strong mandate to implement profound reforms.
Nepal needs significant infrastructure investments and a high pace of development over the long term. It is not yet clear whether Shah will be able to achieve this. It can be predicted that Nepal will emphasise its independence in foreign policy, while also turning subtly to India and indirectly to the West.
Everyone expected Shah to win, but the final results were a surprise due to the scale of the defeat for the incumbent government. The RSP secured the support of nearly 48% of voters and won 182 seats in the 275-seat parliament. This was the second-best result in Nepal’s history, and Shah himself personally defeated former Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli in the constituency. Second and third place went to the largest parties of the previous regime: Congress (16.2%) and former Prime Minister Sharma Oli’s Communists (13.4%). It’s worth noting the exceptionally poor performance of monarchists (around 2%), meaning the issue of restoring the old system, which had been circulating in the media worldwide for some time, was shelved for a long time.
Balendra Shah received an exceptionally strong mandate. This gives him a secure majority in parliament and stable support for the long term. He can therefore proceed with the reforms he has announced and the public expects.
Who is Balendra Shah, and does he really want to implement reforms? In the media, especially globally, he is portrayed primarily as a singer. He does indeed sing and record; this is undoubtedly one of his personalities. His style is Nephop – short for Nepali hip-hop, combining Melo declamation and modern sound with traditional instruments. On stage, he performs under the stage name Balen, a diminutive of his name, and cultivates a star-like image.
However, it’s worth noting that he is first and foremost a politician. Educated at a prestigious polytechnic university in Bangalore, India, in 2021 he became an independent candidate for mayor of Kathmandu and won the elections held the following year, thanks to his image as a figure outside the system, uncorrupted, and young.
As mayor of the capital, he led programmes to modernise and reconstruct streets and neighbourhoods, sometimes using controversial methods such as forced evictions. He also sought to portray himself as an uncompromising politician, acting in the interests of the entire country. He criticised both of Nepal’s neighbours and their attempts to influence national politics. So, he is young, but with a lot of political experience for a person his age.
During the term of the interim government, he repeatedly praised Prime Minister Karki; she was more reserved towards him (perhaps because of the ongoing campaign; she wanted to avoid accusations of bias), but she congratulated him immediately after the elections, and he in return thanked her for professionally managing the country for half a year and preparing the parliamentary elections.
So which way will Balendra Shah and the new Nepalese government go? Will he succeed in making real changes that will set Nepal on a path to rapid development, as its neighbours have been doing for decades? Or will he concentrate on accumulating power and promoting a cult of personality around himself? History is full of such examples. However, it seems that this is an exceptionally favourable moment for Nepal: the former elite has been discredited, the population wants real change, and, moreover, is young and willing to make sacrifices for the country’s prosperity.
From a global perspective, Balendra Shah’s success or failure is significant. If Shah succeeds in reforming the country, it will be the most positive outcome of such a revolution and could draw others along. If he fails, Generation Z protests around the world may suffer.
What position will Nepal take on the international stage? It’s a cliché to say that the country is located between the two most populous countries – China and India – and therefore has only two options: closer to Beijing or closer to Delhi. Previous governments tended to pursue a northeastern course, particularly KP Sharma Oli and his communist party. China, associated with economic success, has failed to contribute to Nepal’s growth, limiting itself to showy investments and promoting its language and culture.
In this context, Balendra Shah has for years sought to portray himself as a primarily pro-Nepal politician, balancing influence and emphasising his country’s independence. His Indian education and the cultural codes surrounding him align him with India and, indirectly, the West. From this perspective, one might expect Balen to pursue a ‘Nepal First’ policy, perhaps publicly demonstrating independence from New Delhi, while de facto remaining slightly closer to India, treating it more strategically, while relations with China and other countries remain transactional.
It is in Nepal’s best interest to ensure that this opportunity is not wasted, that real reforms are implemented, and that economic growth is ensured. Balendra Shah has the potential to accomplish this, but only time will tell.
The writer is an expert, Centre for International Relations, Poland