Donetsk region: Days before the leaders of Russia and the US hold a summit meeting in Alaska, Moscow’s forces breached Ukrainian lines in a series of infiltrations in the country’s industrial heartland of Donetsk.
This week’s advances amount to only a limited success for Russia, analysts say, since it still needs to consolidate its gains before achieving a true breakthrough. Still, it’s a potentially dangerous moment for Ukraine.
Russian President Vladimir Putin will likely try to persuade US President Donald Trump to pressure Ukraine by arguing the 3 1/2-year-old war is going badly for Kyiv, said Mykola Bieleskov, a senior analyst at CBA Initiatives Centre.
“The key risk for Ukraine is that the Kremlin will try to turn certain local gains on the battlefield into strategic victories at the negotiating table,” he said.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Tuesday that Putin wants Ukraine to withdraw from the remaining 30% of the Donetsk region that Kyiv still controls as part of a ceasefire deal, a proposal the Ukrainian leader categorically rejected.
After years of fighting, Russia still does not fully control all of the Donetsk region, which it illegally annexed in 2022, along with the Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions.
Infiltration by small groups of Russian forces
Attention has been focused on Pokrovsk, a key highway and rail junction that was once home to about 60,000 and is now partially encircled, but Russian forces have been probing for weaknesses north of the city, according to battlefield analysis site DeepState.
The forces found a gap east of the coal-mining town of Dobropillia, and advanced about 10 km.
Zelenskyy noted its clear significance to the summit: “To create a certain information backdrop ahead of Putin’s meeting with Trump, especially in the American information space, suggesting that Russia is moving forward and Ukraine is losing ground.”
Small groups of Russian troops are slipping past the first defensive line, hiding and trying to build up their forces, said Dmytro Trehubov, spokesman for Ukraine’s “Dnipro” operational-strategic group.
Ukraine’s military has been repelling these attempts, he said, although DeepState said the situation has not been stabilised.
Analysts described the breach near Dobropillia as a localised crisis that could escalate if the Russians are not neutralised and their main forces can widen the gap.
Exploiting an absence of Ukrainian infantry
The breach of the defensive line has seemed inevitable for months, according to a drone pilot in the area, speaking on condition of anonymity because he was not authorised to talk publicly.
Moscow’s forces have been exploiting the lack of Ukrainian infantry, a problem tied not only to the country’s stalled mobilisation but also to poor management, the pilot said.
“We pay with territory and lives to fix mistakes, and we can keep fixing mistakes only as long as we have even a scrap of land left,” the pilot said.
Ukrainian forces have tried to plug the gaps by extensive use of first-person-view drones, remotely piloted devices loaded with explosives that allow operators to see targets before striking.
These FPVs have turned areas up to 20 km from the front into deadly zones on both sides of the line. But because the Russians attack with small groups, it’s hard to counter with drones alone.
“We can’t launch 100 FPVs at once,” the pilot said, noting the drone operators would interfere with each other.
With tactics and technology roughly equal on both sides, the Russians’ superior manpower works to their advantage, said Bielieskov, the Kyiv-based analyst.
“They have no regard for human life. Very often, most of those they send are on a one-way mission,” he said.
Stopping the infiltrations and assaults by armoured vehicles requires different defences and leadership structures, changes that have yet to appear on Ukraine’s side, he said.
Ukraine’s military said Thursday that additional troops have been moved to affected areas, with battle-hardened forces like the Azov brigade being deployed to the sector. However, the Deepstate map doesn’t show any changes in favour of the Ukrainian army.
Russia’s focus on cutting supply routes
Michael Kofman, a military analyst for the Carnegie Endowment, said in a post on X that it was too early to assess if the front line was collapsing.
Russia is focused on expanding the breach of the front line into a corridor to support its ground forces, Bieleskov said. The strategy avoids direct assaults on heavily fortified urban centres, instead pushing through open terrain where Ukraine’s troop shortages and large settlements make defence harder.
If successful, such a move could bypass Russia’s need to storm Kostiantynivka, once a city of over 67,000 people and now significantly ruined and on the verge of falling. That would complicate defending the region’s last big cities of Sloviansk, Kramatorsk and Druzhkivka, posing a serious challenge for Ukraine’s military.
Cmdr Serhii Filimonov of the “Da Vinci Wolves” battalion of the 59th brigade warned that Kostiantynivka could fall without a fight if Russia severs supply routes.
With few major roads, maintaining logistics for the large number of Ukrainian forces in the area would become “extremely difficult,” Filimonov said.
Turning to the summit, Filimonov decried what he described as ongoing Russian killings and atrocities. “And then the civilised world comes to them and says, Fine, let’s make a deal.
AP
