Post NewsNetwork
Bhubaneswar, April 30: Weather agencies are differing over the impact that El Nino is likely to have on the southwest monsoon in the state and country.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on April 23 forecast that the country will suffer an El Nino situation this monsoon. This statement however differed from that of the private Delhi-based weather agency Skymet which said the system may cast some effect on summer rain, but not on monsoon rain in the country.
El Nino is caused by warming of waters in the Pacific Ocean, and can affect global rainfall patterns during monsoon, leading to drought in parts of the country and storms and flash floods in other regions.
According to data released by the Bhubaneswar Meteorological Centre, the state has received erratic rainfall for the past two months (summer). In March, the state received 62 per cent deficit rainfall than normal whereas in April, it received 80 per cent surplus rain.
“The erratic change in weather system can be attributed to climate change, an effect of a weak El Nino this time. Last year too, IMD had issued El Nino warning after a deficit rainfall in summer, but monsoon went normal. This will repeat itself this season too,” said a local weather official here, seeking to assuage fears of an impending drought in the state.
On the contrary, the Australian weather office said the chances of an occurrence of El Nino this year have tripled. The weather bureau said based upon model outlooks and current observations, there was a triple than normal chance of an El Nino event this year.
“Indian subcontinent has witnessed El Nino in 1994, 1997, 2002 and 2006. Except in 2002, the effect of El Nino in Orissa was minimal. The forecast will be clear about El Nino in the second forecast of IMD in June,” said Met director Sarat Sahu.
