New Delhi: The prevailing El Nino conditions over the equatorial Pacific are most likely to intensify into a very strong event in the coming months and persist through February 2027, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has said.
It said this could have substantial impacts on rainfall and temperature patterns and the associated risks of floods, drought and extreme heat.
In a statement Thursday, WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said, “El Nino in Spanish means boy child – but it has the potential to deliver a massive blow to communities and economies across the world.
“We are already seeing disruption and devastation from droughts and floods, and we expect these impacts to increase as El Nino intensifies.”
The WMO projections came just days after the India Meteorological Department (IMD), in its forecast for September, said that El Nino conditions could persist till February next year.
El Nino is one of the three phases of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) – a climate phenomenon characterised by changes in sea temperatures along the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, accompanied by fluctuations in the atmosphere overhead.
While El Nino is known to have a warming effect on the planet, its opposite phase, called La Nina, usually results in a cooling effect. ENSO also has a neutral phase.
El Nino conditions typically lead to less rainfall in India. That is why it did not come as a surprise when the IMD, August 31, confirmed that the overall rainfall in India during the month was deficient due to prevailing El Nino conditions.
The rainfall deficit over the whole of India in August stood at 16 per cent, according to the IMD.
It also said the month was the hottest August that India experienced since 1901, and one reason for this was El Nino.
For September, the IMD has forecast rainfall to be below 91 per cent of the long period average (LPA).
LPA refers to the rainfall recorded over a particular region for a given period, such as a month or a season, averaged over a long period, typically 30 to 50 years.
For September, the LPA is about 167.9 mm based on data between 1971 and 2020.
While the IMD has yet to make a post-monsoon seasonal forecast, an intensifying El Nino means higher temperatures during the winter season, which could exacerbate the situation as India is already witnessing warmer winters.
A recent study by Climate Trends, a Delhi-based climate think tank, found that winters in northern India are shortening, with February-March warming becoming common.
According to Climate Trends, February has recorded the fastest warming, with temperatures rising by 0.69 degree Celsius per decade. March and April also show significant increases at 0.58 degrees Celsius and 0.66 degree Celsius, respectively.
This is increasing the risk of terminal heat stress on Rabi crops like wheat.
“These temperature changes coincide with the reproductive and grain filling stages of wheat and are already affecting production in the major wheat-growing regions,” the study said.