Brisbane: India are sitting third on the World Test Championship (WTC) table after Jasprit Bumrah and Akash Deep’s spirited tenth-wicket partnership helped India salvage a crucial draw against Australia in the rain-marred third Test of the Border-Gavaskar Trophy series at the Gabba Wednesday.
While their effort ensured that the five-match series remained evenly poised at 1-1, it also set the stage for a dramatic finish to the ICC World Test Championship (WTC) 2025 qualification race.
Both India and Australia saw their WTC points percentage (PCT) dip; India to 55.88 per cent and Australia to 58.89 per cent. South Africa, meanwhile, with 63.33 PCT are out in front of the standings and in the box seat to feature in the one-off Test in June 2025, with Australia and India their closest challengers ahead of the Boxing Day Test in Melbourne and the New Year Test in Sydney at the start of next year.
With just two matches remaining in the ongoing WTC cycle, India faces a near-impossible task to secure a spot in the final. Their current PCT of 55.88 leaves them in third place, trailing South Africa and Australia. To overtake both and ensure qualification, India must deliver flawless performances in the upcoming Tests in Melbourne and Sydney.
It won’t be easy, but it is not impossible, as India needs to win their remaining two matches against Australia to ensure qualification. Any other outcome, however, would leave their fate dependent on other results to reach the Finale at Lord’s.
If India wins each of the remaining Tests against Australia, it would raise India’s PCT to 60.52, ensuring they surpass Australia even if the defending champions secure a 2-0 victory in their final series against Sri Lanka.
If India loses one of the remaining two Tests of this series, the team will have to rely on Sri Lanka whitewashing Australia 2-0.
While India battles for survival, South Africa and Australia find themselves in more favourable positions. South Africa’s comprehensive victory over Sri Lanka in Gqeberha has made them the team to beat. With a PCT of over 60 per cent, they need just one win in their remaining two Tests against Pakistan to secure a spot in the WTC final. Even if they lose both matches, they remain strong contenders unless India pulls off a miraculous 3-1 series victory in Australia.
Australia, sitting in second place, will travel to Sri Lanka for two Tests. A 2-0 series win would solidify their spot in the final, provided India falters in either Melbourne or Sydney.
For India, the equation is simple yet daunting; win both Tests against Australia or risk elimination.
