With a series of by-election wins giving a booster dose to the Opposition parties, the way forward for the ruling BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Damodardas Modi is paved with thorns. With nothing much to show by way of achievement in governance, the party is left only with the PM’s oratorical skills. Even the superficial pro-poor stance that was sought to be projected has now fallen flat. In today’s India with television sets and news through the Net spreading awareness down to the rural belts, big talk alone may not fetch success for a party in any election. Actions speak for themselves.
The unity that has been forged in the aftermath of the Karnataka election verdict helped the Congress-JDS combine to wrest power from the jaws of defeat with moral support from the national Opposition and regional satraps. This has come as a blessing in disguise to the wider Opposition. The by-election results from Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra and Bihar – three of the larger states – poured cold water on the hopes of the BJP to win the Lok Sabha polls next year from a commanding position. The BJP is defeated in most places, and it won a seat in Maharashtra by pitting itself against the somewhat rudderless Shiv Sena for obvious reasons. Interestingly, another seat vacated by a former Lok Sabha member belonging to the BJP and who had rebelled against the Prime Minister’s style of functioning, in Maharashtra, saw an united fight put up by the Congress and the NCP. This combination resulted in the Gondiya seat being wrested from the BJP with relative ease. This was a clear indication of where the winds are now blowing in that state. The UP by-polls turned out to be a washout for the BJP, proving great relevance for the unity of the Opposition. The BSP, the SP and the Congress put together could ably take on the BJP; indicating also that the images of both PM Modi and CM Yogi Adityanath can no more ensure a victory for the BJP in the largely spread, electorally commanding state in a General Election.
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Bihar is already seen as a lost case for the BJP and the NDA, with the RJD taking the wind out of the BJP-JD(U) sails with chief minister Nitish Kumar running for cover. The recent by-elections in Rajasthan showed BJP getting defeated almost everywhere. Anti-incumbency is strong in Madhya Pradesh that is set for polls later this year along with Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. Haryana also is clearly facing anti-incumbency mood and the BJP has been put on notice in these states. Chhattisgarh seems to be the only state that could swing either way. The Lok Sabha results in Gujarat, too, are not expected to be a repeat of 2014 for the BJP.
Question is, where will the BJP get its numbers for 2019 if the Hindi belt is setting itself on an anti-saffron, anti-Modi mood?
The South is a washout, and the only hope the BJP had there was in its former fortress of Karnataka. Among the regional chieftains, Chandrababu Naidu has shifted base and is now in a mood to side with the national Opposition, though there is something unpredictable about the AP and Telangana CMs. The past has proven that they are like weathercocks. In Tamil Nadu, the BJP’s ally is the ruling AIADMK, which is now rudderless and failing to rise to people’s expectations in matters of governance. The good name that J Jayalalithaa had built for her party is gone for good after her demise. BJP is not expected to raise its head in Kerala because of the presence of minorities in large numbers there and also its organisational weakness.
Eastern India is set against the BJP as well, as is clear from the political calculus in Kolkata, wider Bengal, and Odisha.
A slight jump in economic growth as was projected in the last quarter by itself would not fetch votes for the ruling party. The constant rise in fuel prices is not only hitting the vehicle-owning middle class, but people across the board by way of rise in prices of essential commodities. The failure on the part of the Modi government to check bank frauds that sees the hard-earned money of Indians being siphoned away to tax havens abroad by greedy sharks and uncouth business magnates, in billions, is casting a shadow over claims of clean governance by the Modi government. The disaster of demonetisation is still not behind us; nor are problems caused in the wake of the GST implementation. Good governance, it would appear, is a far cry. The coming general election is less than a year hence. How things shape up this year is of immense interest.
