New Delhi: The first 21 days of the nationwide coronavirus lockdown has recorded a spike of about 10,300 COVID-19 cases. During this period beginning March 25 more than 340 deaths have been reported.
The lockdown in India has been billed the world largest shutdown, keeping in mind the population. However, many medical experts feel India would have been far worse without the lockdown.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi extended Tuesday the countrywide lockdown for 19 additional days till May 3. This has been done to contain the spread of the pandemic. In the last 24 hours India saw a record jump of 1,463 new COVID-19 cases. Thirty one new deaths were also reported in the last 24 hours, Union Health Ministry said.
First lockdown statistics
When the lockdown began India had close to 520 confirmed cases of coronavirus and 11 deaths. After a week into the lockdown the tally of cases reached 1,397 and 35 deaths March 31. It was a jump of 878 cases and 24 deaths.
At the end of the two weeks of the lockdown April 7, the cases had risen to 4,789 confirmed cases with 124 deaths. It was a spike of 3,392 cases and 89 deaths. Tuesday, the last day of the ongoing 21-day lockdown, the figures had only increased. The death toll due to coronavirus stood at 339, the number of cases soaring to 10,363.
The third and final week of the lockdown saw a jump of 6,026 cases and 229 deaths.
Government’s view
The government has maintained without preventive measures the numbers would have been sky high. It said that lockdown and other containment measures such as contact tracing and isolation have been successful. The Union Health Ministry has asserted the number of confirmed cases could have reached 8.2 lakh by April 15. It hasn’t due to lockdown and other containment measures.
The ministry had earlier also stated that the rate of rise in conformed cases would have been much lower. However, it has increased due to the Tablighi Jamaat event at Nizamuddin last month.
Expert opinions
Only a detailed study would be able to throw light on the success of the 21-day lockdown. However, medical experts say it was necessary and India’’ situation would have been even more precarious in its absence.
“I think it was a bold step (the first lockdown) and the situation demanded it. Our lockdown came much early compared to say in the US or Italy or other European countries. You can see the number of coronavirus cases in those countries. Then compare it with ours,” Dr Arvind Kumar, a noted lung surgeon here said.
“We have made gains in these 21 days. It will give the country time to prepare itself for the future phase of the battle against COVID-19,” Dr Kumar added.
Ravi Shekhar Jha, Head of the Department, Pulmonology, Fortis, noted that in the last few days, cases have risen rapidly.
“The doubling time of cases which was 10 days earlier has been reduced to seven days. Now it has gone down to four days. But even then, I would say, the lockdown has given us gains. Without it, the cases and deaths would have been far higher,” Jha asserted.
Dr Rajesh Chawla, pulmonologist at Apollo Hospital, said the number of cases has risen in the past several days. It will increase even more now.
“The 21-day lockdown allowed the government and other stakeholders to prepare themselves to face the surge. We are still on the rising limb of the epidemic curve. However, people have learned social distancing, sneezing etiquettes. This will help in decelerating the spread of the virus,” Chawla said.
Chawla, however, asserted the virus spread can only be slowed down and the infection cannot be stopped till ‘we find a vaccine’.
PTI
