It is not without reason that Sunday, 18 May, was regarded as an electoral “Super Sunday” when millions of voters across three European countries – Romania, Poland and Portugal decided the fortunes of candidates belonging to liberal, pro-European Union on the one hand and Far-Right, pro-Donald Trump parties on the other, vying with one another for their respective country’s top posts. There were widespread fears that the Far-Right would gain, particularly in Romania and Poland. But, after the ballots were counted it became clear that the Centrists held their ground in the two EU and NATO member nations bordering the war-ravaged Ukraine. This has come as a boost to the West and the EU must have heaved a deep sigh of relief that europesceptic parties have been kept at bay, at least for now. Portugal’s Centre-Right governing party also secured a parliamentary win, but it had to concede record gains to the Far-Right.
However, the signs are ominous for liberal forces since despite the Centrist parties’ eventual victories, Far-Right populist forces continue to grow in all the three countries. This is the latest in a string of Far Right surges in Europe. Last summer, EU elections saw a clear shift to the Right in the European Parliament, shaking up governments across the 27-member bloc. The mainstream political parties had to cede ground. Romania’s presidential election concluded with a clear victory for Centrist candidate Nicusor Dan, who secured 54 per cent of the vote against nationalist rival George Simion’s 46 per cent. The closely watched contest recorded the highest voter turnout in 25 years as it has serious geopolitical implications for the EU. The election results show a dramatic comeback for Dan, the 55-year-old mayor of Bucha rest, who trailed in the early stages but surged ahead in the fi nal days of the ballot. Dan, a former mathematician, pledged to fight against corruption and rally behind the EU and NATO.
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On the other hand, Simion, a Trump admirer, ran a campaign rooted in euroscepticism and nationalist rhetoric, pledging to stop military aid to Ukraine and overturn the ruling establishment in a style similar to Trump. His early lead raised fears among liberal segments of the population, but as results came in, it became clear that voters had opted for Dan’s vision of a Centrist Romania. The elections were held after a previous vote in December had been annulled due to alleged Russian interference. Most Romanians feared that a win for the Far Right Simion would mean Russian control of their country, while a victory for Dan would turn the country towards the EU and NATO. They did not want their country to suffer the plight of Ukraine invaded by Russia. The high turnout reflected the people’s mood rejecting the rising Right-wing populism and reinforcing Romania’s Western orientation in the midst of regional instability. No wonder among the first to congratulate Dan were Ukraine’s President Volodomyr Zelenskyy and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. In Poland, Rafal Trzaskowski, a deputy leader of Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s centrist Civic Platform (PO) party, won 31.1 per cent of the vote against the conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party’s Karol Nawrocki’s vote share of 29.1 per cent. It was a virtual referendum on Tusk’s government. But, the fight is still on as the elections are poised for a second round. Social issues figured prominently during the campaign trail, with Nawrocki portraying himself as a guardian of conservative values, while Trzaskowski drew support from voters for his pledges to back abortion and LGBTQ rights. A Trzaskowski victory in the second round could enable Tusk’s government to implement an agenda that includes rolling back judicial changes introduced by PiS that critics say have undermined the independence of the courts. In Portugal, the parliamentary election saw the ruling Centre-Right Democratic Alliance (AD), led by Prime Minister Luis Montenegro, take 89 seats in the 230-seat parliament, well short of 116 needed for a majority. The party garnered 32.7 per cent of the vote.
The Socialist Party (PS) and the Far-Right Chega finished in second place, both securing 58 seats. The Socialists suffered significant losses compared with the previous elections. With the results of several seats yet to be called, Chega might emerge as the main Opposition party. Chega, which ran on an anti-immigration platform, won a record 22.6 per cent of the vote, an impressive rise from the 1.3 per cent it had got in its debut election in 2019. Even though the Far-Right parties in the three countries have failed to cause any major setback to the mainstream parties, the latter need to convince the electorate without any delay that their brand of politics is capable of tackling the ongoing cost of living crisis and the issue of migration. Otherwise, it is only a matter of time that the Far-Right could occupy the centre-stage of European politics.
