New Delhi: US President Donald Trump has announced a new agreement for joint development of Pakistan’s oil reserves, hailing it as a “significant beginning” to a long-term energy partnership. However, in the end, the US may find itself investing in a partnership that yields little energy, less loyalty, and a great deal of geopolitical turbulence, according to an article posted on ‘Directus’, an online platform based in Greece.
The US foreign policy announcement, made via Trump’s Truth Social platform, was followed by a broader trade agreement and a reduction in tariffs on Pakistani imports, from 29 per cent to 19 per cent. On the surface, this may appear to be a pragmatic move to deepen economic ties and counterbalance China’s growing influence in South Asia. But beneath the fanfare lies a troubling strategic miscalculation, the Athens-datelined article points out.
It observes that Trump’s enthusiasm for Pakistan’s “massive” oil reserves is puzzling, as the Asian country’s crude oil reserves are estimated at a mere 234 and 353 million barrels, placing it around 50th globally. Pakistan is dependent on imports to meet its oil needs and currently imports oil from the US as well.
Even if oil extraction were to succeed, particularly in Balochistan, where reserves are believed to exist, the consequences could be destabilising. Balochistan has long been a flashpoint of ethnic and political unrest, exacerbated by perceptions of exploitation by foreign powers. China’s heavy footprint in the region through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has already fuelled resentment. US involvement in resource extraction could further alienate local populations and entangle Washington in a volatile domestic conflict, the article points out.
Balochistan holds strategic interest for Washington as a potential vantage point to monitor Iranian activities. But leveraging the province for geopolitical gain risks inflaming tensions in a region already bristling with anti-Western sentiment.
The article states that Pakistan Army Chief Asim Munir’s visit to Washington may appear as a flattering gesture, but “it is emblematic of a deeper, more troubling trend, Washington’s reactive pivot toward Islamabad, seemingly driven by frustration with New Delhi’s assertive posture.”
India’s firm stance in trade negotiations, particularly its refusal to accept Trump’s proposed trade deal, has clearly unsettled Washington. Compounding this is India’s massive and unapologetic purchase of Russian oil, which has challenged Western expectations and signalled a fiercely independent energy strategy. In response, the US appears to be rekindling ties with Pakistan, a country whose aid was only recently slashed by the same administration now courting it. This rekindled bonhomie, however, is not rooted in strategic foresight. It is a knee-jerk reaction, an attempt to play the old India-versus-Pakistan card to pressure New Delhi into compliance. But this approach is not only outdated; it is dangerously myopic, it points out.
India is not merely a regional counterweight to China; it is a long-term strategic partner for the US. The two nations share deep and expanding cooperation across critical sectors — advanced technology, clean energy, higher education, and defence. American and Indian private industries are increasingly intertwined, with robust business-to-business ties and joint ventures that span Silicon Valley to Bengaluru. Defence agreements between the two countries have reached an unprecedented scale, reflecting mutual trust and shared security interests. To jeopardise this multifaceted partnership for the sake of short-term leverage over trade or oil diplomacy with Pakistan is to sacrifice strategic depth for tactical theatrics.
The article also highlights that Pakistan is an unreliable ally given its foreign policy playbook, which follows a dual-track diplomacy that has enabled the country to extract benefits from both Beijing and Washington without committing fully to either. Any US attempt to reduce Pakistan’s reliance on China must reckon with this deeply ingrained strategic culture. Pakistan will continue to play both sides, leveraging American technology and markets while welcoming Chinese infrastructure and investment.
Islamabad has long mastered the art of strategic hedging, aligning opportunistically with global powers based on shifting priorities. During the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, Pakistan was America’s indispensable ally. When China launched its Belt and Road Initiative, Pakistan became its flagship partner. In counter-terrorism efforts, Pakistani forces cooperated with the West. And when China needed maritime access, Gwadar Port was made available.
The Trump-led oil agreement may be framed as a bold step toward energy cooperation, but it risks becoming another chapter in a long history of American misjudgments in South Asia. The economic rationale is shaky, the geopolitical risks are high, and the strategic payoff is uncertain. If Washington truly seeks to counter China’s influence and stabilise the region, it must look beyond transactional deals and understand the deeper currents shaping Pakistan’s foreign policy, the article states.
IANS
