Dubai: Negotiators from Iran and the United States prepared Friday for high-level talks planned to start a day later in Islamabad, seeking to steady a ceasefire teetering over Israel and Hezbollah exchanging fire and Tehran’s chokehold over the Strait of Hormuz.
US Vice President JD Vance was set to take off from Washington, with Iran still remaining mum over its team as it tried to pressure Washington to halt Israeli attacks in Lebanon. The semiofficial Tasnim news agency, close to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, claimed that talks would “remain suspended” otherwise.
Meanwhile, Kuwait said it faced a drone attack Thursday night that it blamed on Iran and its militia allies in the region. Though Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard denied launching any assault, it has in the past carried out attacks across the Mideast it did not claim.
In addition to talks in Iran, Israel-Lebanon negotiations are also expected to begin next week at the State Department in Washington – a potential boost to Middle East ceasefire efforts – according to a US official and a person familiar with the plans, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the delicacy of the matter.
This came after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Thursday that he has authorised direct negotiations with Lebanon “as soon as possible” aimed at disarming Iranian-backed Hezbollah militants and establishing relations between the neighbours.
Israel and Lebanon have technically been at war since Israel was established in 1948, and Netanyahu later stressed that there was no ceasefire between them. Israel’s announcement of negotiations with Lebanon comes amid disagreement over whether the ceasefire deal included a pause in fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, and a day after Israel pounded Beirut with airstrikes, the deadliest day in Lebanon since the war began February 28.
The talks in Washington are expected to be handled on the American side by the US ambassador to Lebanon, Michel Issa, and on the Israeli side by the Israeli ambassador to the US, Yechiel Leiter, according to the person familiar with the planning.
The Lebanese government had not responded as of Friday morning, and it was not immediately clear who would represent Lebanon. The timing and location of the talks was first reported by Axios.
Pressure on the ceasefire continues
After declaring victory with the ceasefire announcement, both Iran and the US have appeared to apply pressure on each other. Semiofficial news agencies in Iran suggested forces have mined the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial waterway for oil that Tehran has closed. Trump warned that US forces would hit Iran harder than before if it did not fulfil the agreement.
Late Thursday, US President Donald Trump appeared to cast doubt on the effectiveness of the ceasefire, writing on his social media platform: “Iran is doing a very poor job, dishonourable some would say, of allowing Oil to go through the Strait of Hormuz.”
“That is not the agreement we have!” Trump wrote of the trickle of ships Iran has allowed to pass through the crucial waterway.
Underlining Iran’s continued control of the strait, a Botswana-flagged liquefied natural gas tanker attempted to travel out of the Persian Gulf via a route ordered by the Revolutionary Guard, but suddenly turned around and headed back early Friday, ship-tracking data showed.
Saudi Arabia said recent attacks have damaged a key pipeline in the kingdom. Saudi Arabia’s state-run Saudi Press Agency, quoting an anonymous official, said its crucial East-West pipeline, which carries oil out to the Red Sea and avoids the Strait of Hormuz, was damaged in the recent attacks.
Questions also remained over what will happen to Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium at the heart of tensions, how and when normal traffic will resume through the strait, and what happens to Iran’s ability to launch future missile attacks and support armed proxies in the region.
Iran’s parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, warned in a social media post Thursday that continued Israeli attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon would bring “explicit costs and STRONG responses.”
Qalibaf has been discussed as a possible negotiator who could meet Vance in Islamabad. The White House has said Vance would lead the delegation for talks starting Saturday.
Trump said Thursday that he has asked Netanyahu to dial back the strikes in Lebanon.
Lebanon’s health ministry said more than 300 people were killed and more than 1,100 wounded Wednesday by Israeli strikes on central Beirut and other areas of Lebanon that Israel said targeted Hezbollah, which joined the war in support of Tehran.
Early Friday morning, Israel’s military said it struck approximately 10 launchers in Lebanon that had fired rockets toward northern Israel on Thursday.
The threat of mines looms over the strait
Four tankers and three bulk carriers crossed through the strait Thursday, bringing the total number of ships passing through since the ceasefire to at least 12, according to the data firm Kpler.
Semiofficial news agencies in Iran published a chart Thursday suggesting the country’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard put sea mines into the Strait of Hormuz during the war – a message that may be intended to pressure the US.
The chart, released by the ISNA news agency and Tasnim, showed a large circle marked “danger zone” in Farsi over the route ships take through the strait, through which 20 per cent of all traded oil and natural gas once passed.
The head of the United Arab Emirates’ major oil company, Sultan al-Jaber, said some 230 ships loaded with oil were waiting to get through the strait and must be allowed “to navigate this corridor without condition.”
The Strait’s de facto closure has caused oil prices to skyrocket – affecting the cost of gasoline, food and other basics far beyond the Middle East. The spot price of Brent crude, the international standard, was around USD 96 Friday, up about 35 per cent since the war began.
