By Dhurjati Mukherjee
The agricultural sector is expected to be affected in most districts due to deficient rainfall at the right time and other factors. According to government data, about 45 per cent of the net sown area is rain-fed, and with the monsoon being weak in around 380-400 districts, production is likely to decline. It is understood that the total acreage under three crop categories—coarse cereals, pulses and oilseeds—has fallen sharply, by over 40 per cent. This does not augur well for a country that ranks 102nd out of 123 countries in the 2025 Global Hunger Index, with a score of 25.8, placing it in the ‘Serious’ hunger category.
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As is well known, pulses are a key source of protein, and India imports about a fifth of its requirement. The fall in production will result in increased imports, affecting the economy. But what is most disturbing is that pulses, which are a poor person’s primary source of protein, will become less affordable for this section of society as prices are expected to rise.
Keeping the monsoon situation in view, measures need to be taken to ensure that groundwater depletion is kept to a minimum. Moreover, there should be efforts to promote dryland farming, and incentives need to be provided for crops that require very little water.
On the other hand, water conservation measures must be intensified by sensitising farmers at the grassroots level. In fact, like fertilisers, water is a key input when it comes to agricultural production and productivity. However, per capita water availability is declining every year, and India may soon become a water-stressed country, affecting not just the agricultural sector but also domestic and industrial output.
However, it may be pointed out that India’s economy has become less reliant on the monsoon than commonly perceived, with expanding irrigation networks and changing cropping patterns, according to brokerage firm Bernstein. It stated that the traditional narrative that nearly 60 per cent of India’s agriculture depends on monsoon rainfall no longer reflects ground realities, arguing that the country’s relationship with rainfall has undergone a ‘structural reset’.
Though the argument is debatable, it is a fact that dependence on monsoon rainfall has considerably reduced. Historically, a deficient monsoon often translated into sharp declines in agricultural output and rural incomes. In 2002, for instance, rainfall fell to 81 per cent of the long-period average, leading to a steep drop in foodgrain production and a severe contraction in rural disposable incomes. This situation may have changed, and in 2018-19 and again in 2023-24, India registered rising foodgrain production despite below-normal monsoons, the brokerage noted.
As per the latest reports, it is encouraging to note that acreage under staples is increasingly shifting towards hardy crops and vegetables that require less water. The latest government data shows that acreage under sunflower jumped 61.6 per cent from a year earlier, while the area sown under mumm, kulith (horse gram), jute and mesta has also risen by over 8 per cent, 15 per cent, 2 per cent and 3.7 per cent, respectively.
Seed companies are witnessing the change in demand. Farmers are increasingly opting for short-duration vegetables, prompting companies to import additional seeds of coriander, cabbage and temperate cauliflower.
Dependence on water as well as fertilisers needs to be reduced, for which there has to be a shift in cropping patterns towards crops that require less water. Experiments need to be carried out by the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) and other institutions such as the IITs, with the findings then communicated to farmers, keeping their incomes in view.
But the thrust on research remains somewhat piecemeal, considering the large number of people involved in farming, directly or indirectly.
If one considers productivity, most emerging economies are far ahead of India, as research in those countries has been successfully translated into field practices. Not that India has not made tangible progress, but a greater thrust is necessary in the coming years.
