By Dhurjati Mukherjee
August was the hottest month for the world as it was for India. The IMD shared a recent report by climate science platform Climate Brink, which forecast that 2026 is likely to become the warmest ever. This year is on track for 1.62°C above pre-industrial levels, which is over the annual global average rise recorded in 2024, in range of 1.55°C and 1.6°C benchmark.
Reports reveal the world is set to permanently enter the 1.5°C temperature rise era, with the average temperature potentially settling at around 1.8°C, though several climate models predict the rise to reach 2°C or beyond. Europe too is reported to be battling its worst heat wave on record amid research suggesting the human body may be less tolerant of extreme heat than previously believed; reinforcing global warming could make parts of the planet too hot for human survival.
A study published in April found that earlier heat waves in Australia, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Spain had breached physiological heat stress thresholds. The latest reports of June and July reveal conditions have worsened.
Extreme heat costs South Asia the equivalent of 32 million full-time jobs every year. The recent World Development Report (WDR) report ‘A Liveable Future: Tackling Extreme Heat for Jobs and Growth in South Asia’s Cities’ warned that without action, the region’s GDP could fall nearly 7% by 2050. Informal workers would be hit hardest – a single heat wave can slash their earnings by 40%.
A recent Yale Centre for Environmental Law and Policy report titled Environment Protection Index 2026 ranked India 176 out of 177 countries, scoring 22.46 out of 100 due to the country’s low standing on air pollution, high reliance on coal and inadequate biodiversity protection. The very poor ranking of the country is obviously a cause of serious concern.
An interdisciplinary group of scientists of the Stockholm Research Centre has adopted a method called the Planetary Boundaries Framework. Accordingly, there are nine key Earth systems which, if treated beyond safety limits through human activities, could result in large, sudden changes in nature that have so far not been experienced.
These nine critical earth systems for monitoring include climate change, biodiversity loss, phosphorus and nitrogen cycles, chemical pollution, ocean acidification, ozone depletion, land use patterns, freshwater use and atmospheric aerosol loading. Initially 200-odd scientists involved in the project found the complementary nature of these problems have been accentuating with every passing year. Clearly, efforts underway to protect the planet are grossly inadequate.
Apart from natural resources, water obviously is crucial and strategic planning of its use and treatment is critical. Experts believe that water constraints will shape India’s growth. In practice, this means future industrial capacity will concentrate in regions that can demonstrate long-term water security, efficient allocation and advanced reuse systems.
Over time, water resilience will influence both industrial and agricultural activity. India cannot pursue a linear growth model in a non-linear water environment.
The recent wars in Russia-Ukraine and West Asia have led to grave environmental catastrophe and ecocide. But such ecocide is not expressly banned or defined under the framework of international law. Article 8(2)(b)(iv) of the Rome Statute has proved to be inadequate in this regard. The International Criminal Court is yet to prosecute any nation under the particular provision.
Moreover, it is not known whether there has been any attempt to document the ecological damage from the West Asian crisis, which would be enormously grave, affecting the Gulf nations severely.
In sum, various factors put together ring alarm bells. The challenge ahead to combat global warming is enormous. It must be met and decisively.
