With a string of assembly elections set to take place in the coming few months, the Narendra Damodardas Modi–Amit Shah bandwagon is finally on the defensive after a row of poll victories in recent times. The Prime Minister’s three visits to poll-bound Gujarat in a matter of weeks showed the desperation of the ruling BJP to stem the tide of a possibly strong anti-incumbency wave in that state.
It seems as if the odds are weighed heavily against the BJP in its mother state. This has to be seen in the background of the only Opposition party in Gujarat, the Congress, having no local leadership worth its name. It also seems as if the defection of Shankersinh Vaghela has not crippled the non-BJP wave in that state.
Also, nothing goes to show that another state set for polls three months hence, Karnataka, would see support for the saffron party. If these two states see a win for the Congress, that would mean a big morale boost to the grand old party that is down in the dumps for the past over three years.
It could also signal a much-needed reassurance to the entire Opposition that the BJP, after all, could be challenged at the national level with a new energy at the 2019 general elections. Even if there is going to be a win for the BJP in Himachal Pradesh, it would be small comfort to the saffron party and its leadership.
The desperation in the BJP camp in Gujarat is all too spectacular. The way the party is encouraging defections from other parties, allegedly by payment of hefty sums as bribe, is proof the party foresees serious trouble at the coming hustings. The latest news of BJP’s efforts to bribe Narendra Patel, the former aide of Hardik Patel, shows this desperation large and clear.
Surprisingly, even the utterly pro-BJP national electronic media could not kill this news. Kudos to Narendra, who joined the BJP yesterday, probably took the benefit and promptly quit that party within 24 hours. Now, even if some argue that no money was transacted, the desperation of the BJP to fall into a simple trap that Narendra Patel set shows the utterly butterly helpless scenario that the BJP finds itself in. To claim that this Bribegate incident was worked out by the state BJP president without consulting Modi-Shah will not be believed by any Indian.
The Patedar community is keeping its fingers crossed in the aftermath of the upswing effected by young community leader Hardik Patel against the state government over its refusal to grant backward class status to the Patels. The removal of Anandiben Patel from the post of chief minister might have added to the community’s disenchantment with the ruling BJP.
Although the Patels are not a decisive factor across the state, yet their importance cannot be underplayed. Along with the Patedars, it is possible, many other groups such as the SCs, STs and minorities combined together will become a considerably major force across Gujarat. Some say that the BJP might still win, albeit with a much smaller number of seats. Even if this assumption is proven correct, the defeat for Modi-Shah will be direct. The ringing sound of Gujarat could, then, be heard across India.
