By Malay Mishra
It’s nearly a month since the West Asia conflict began with the combined Israeli-US assault on Iran on 28th February, with the targeted killings of the Supreme Leader and scores of senior military and security officials. The war has seen a progressive escalation from both sides, with the Strait of Hormuz still blocked by Iran for ships and tankers carrying oil and gas through this narrow passageway, creating havoc in global energy markets and supply chains.
Having realised that the war was turning in Iran’s favour, President Trump relaxed his 48-hour ultimatum and gave a five-day pause to Iran (which has now been extended to 10 more days), while Israel has continued to attack Iranian installations and infrastructure.
The war saw shifting of war goals from the US side, from regime change to opening the Strait of Hormuz, and there was wide divergence in war goals and strategy in both the US and Israel’s approach to the war. While the Israeli PM aimed at decapitating the Iranian leadership and killing as many top officials of Iran as possible, Trump was more geared towards stymying Iran’s nuclear programme, though he had categorically stated at the conclusion of the 12-day war in June last year that Iran’s nuclear programme had been “obliterated”, and ending Iran’s missile and drone capability, a position which has been squarely negated with Iran’s continued missile attacks on Israel and US military installations and civilian targets in the US-allied Arab Gulf states, with drones effectively used by Iran for long-distance targeting, including keeping the threat alive in the Strait and Persian Gulf.
Besides, with the express support of China and Russia, Iran is confident of staying on in the war and therefore has refused any move towards a ceasefire.
India’s position seems to have been compromised with PM Modi’s two-day visit to Israel (25-26 Feb), barely 36 hours before the war broke out. Modi, during his visit, had been openly supportive of Israel’s actions and had in a speech at the Knesset affirmed India’s full support for Israel “now and in future”. That was a fatal mistake which, while giving the impression of India’s partisan behaviour towards the USA and Israel, also signalled that it had jettisoned its decades-long strategic and political relations with Iran, which had been a solid support for India in the Muslim world (OIC) all along.
Now, having lost the goodwill and international standing in a conflict in which the USA and Israel are about to accept a retreat, India is in a precarious situation. With the unenviable task of chairing both the BRICS and Quad groupings slated for this year, Delhi is at a loss to justify its stand. While Iran has raised the legitimate point for India, under the BRICS chairmanship, to issue a statement calling for cessation of hostilities and restoration of peace in the region, Delhi has given the justification of two of the BRICS members being engaged in the war (Iran and UAE), which has made a consensus position difficult to reach within the group.
As regards India’s outreach, it has cited the Foreign Secretary’s visit to the Iranian Embassy in Delhi to sign the condolence book five days after the killing of the Supreme Leader, a clear violation of protocol. This, along with India’s lack of immediate response to the sinking of the Iranian naval vessel Dena by an American submarine off Sri Lankan waters on 4th March, had been taken amiss by Tehran. Subsequently, India permitting the docking of the second Iranian ship has seemingly earned goodwill back from Tehran. In fact, Iran has now permitted vessels of five friendly nations, including India and Pakistan, to pass through the Strait.
With over 60% of its oil and gas needs met through the Strait of Hormuz, India has been feeling the impact of the war like never before. Iran’s behaviour towards India at this time, having been less than cordial, the Modi government has been at a loss to justify its position. While the PM gave a statement in Parliament on the ongoing conflict and India’s concerns, stating that India had enough stocks to last, with the Petroleum Ministry stating that oil and gas stocks were sufficient for the country to last another two months or more under these circumstances, it was clear that India was looking for alternatives in these trying times.
Iran has played its ace card by blocking the Strait and used the weapon of energy to manoeuvre a win, with its missile and drone prowess, along with the support of outside powers, while India has been left standing as an outsider despite its civilizational links with Iran.
The war, meanwhile, continues to wreak havoc while completely changing the strategic architecture and power dynamics of this extremely volatile region.
The old world order has taken a burial, and it is in the plains of West Asia and in the waters of the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea that a new geopolitical order may just have been created, signalling the end of America’s unbridled power projection.
The writer is a foreign policy analyst and had served in the Indian Mission in Tehran during the mid-90s