India’s novel coronavirus infection trajectory is quite similar to the United States, a top Chinese infectious disease expert has said.
Given there were already signs of some degree of community transmission in India, it is more likely to follow the trend of US and Europe rather than limit cases to a low number, Zhang Wenhong, a leading figure in China’s COVID-19 strategy said.
“I think the overall situation in India may be similar to that of the U.S,” Zhang said. “The measures of each state in the U.S. are different. Some states are strict and some have resumed work. India has to consider how the economy functions and how the epidemic can be controlled, so it does not pay a high price for epidemic prevention,” he added.
According to Wenhong, India’s approach to adopt a long-term strategy makes sense which includes its approach to testing. While India’s approach in tackling coronavirus has been comparatively different from China’s sweeping lockdowns and mass quarantines, India’s strategy was understandable for its conditions. “Every country should find a way that suits them according to their situation,” Wenhong says.
That said, India may not be able to keep cases to a level like China which managed to limit the spread outside of the Hubei province with mass lockdowns, quarantines and testing.
“Do not look only at the number of cases,” he said. “There have been hundreds of thousands of cases in the US and Europe, more than in India. The lives of Europeans still have not stopped, and they are preparing to resume work, school and business,” he points out.
Wenhong said he believes that the global pandemic was broadly under control as the number of diagnosed cases increased. The mortality rate would eventually reduce, he argues while pointing out that this outbreak is very different from SARS that had a far higher mortality rate.
