Dubai: Iran, the United States and Israel agreed to a two-week ceasefire, an 11th hour deal that allowed US President Donald Trump to pull back from his threats to unleash a bombing campaign that would destroy Iranian civilisation.
But it was unclear Wednesday if the deal had started, what it included and whether it could lead to a durable peace as the sides presented vastly different visions of the terms.
Hours after the announcement, the United Arab Emirates reported an incoming Iranian missile barrage, and Kuwait’s military said its forces were responding to drones. Iran then said an oil refinery came under attack.
US Vice President JD Vance called the agreement a fragile truce.
Even as there were indications that negotiations could begin soon, much about the deal remained unknown
– Iran said the deal would allow it to formalise its new practice of charging ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, but the terms were not clear, nor was it clear whether ships would feel safe using the crucial transit lane for oil. It was also unclear whether any other country agreed to this condition.
– Pakistan, which helped to mediate the deal, and others said it would pause fighting in Lebanon, where Israel has launched a ground invasion against the Iran-backed Hezbollah militant group. Israel said it would not.
In the streets of Tehran, pro-government demonstrators screamed Death to America, death to Israel, death to compromisers! after the ceasefire announcement, and burned American and Israeli flags. The chants underscored the anger animating hard-liners, who have been preparing for what many assumed would be an apocalyptic battle with the United States. Trump warned Tuesday that a whole civilisation will die tonight if a deal isn’t reached.
Varying reports of ceasefire terms
Trump initially said Iran proposed a workable 10-point plan that could help end the war the US launched with Israel February 28. But when a version in Farsi emerged that indicated Iran would be allowed to continue enriching uranium – which is key to building a nuclear weapon – Trump called it fraudulent without elaborating.
Trump also suggested American warships would be hangin’ around the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of all traded oil and natural gas passes in peacetime. That could be a potential flashpoint in days to come.
Iran’s demands for ending the war, meanwhile, include a withdrawal of US combat forces from the region, the lifting of sanctions, and the release of its frozen assets.
All of those are likely nonstarters for Trump and other Western nations.
Pakistan said that talks to hammer out a permanent end to the war could begin in Islamabad as soon as Friday.
Israel backed the US ceasefire with Iran, but Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said early Wednesday that the deal doesn’t cover fighting against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israel’s military said later that fighting and ground operations continue.
Iran and Oman will collect shipping fees in Strait of Hormuz
While Iran could not match the sophistication of U.S. and Israeli weaponry or their dominance in the air, its ability to control the Strait of Hormuz since the war began proved a tremendous strategic advantage. The chokehold roiled the world economy and raised the pressure on Trump both at home and abroad to find a way out of the standoff.
The ceasefire may formalise that control – and give Iran a new source of revenue.
The plan allows for both Iran and Oman to charge fees on ships transiting through the strait, according to a regional official who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss negotiations they were directly involved in. The official said Iran would use the money it raised for reconstruction.
That would upend decades of precedent treating the strait as an international waterway that was free to transit and will likely not be acceptable to the Gulf Arab states, which also need to rebuild after repeated Iranian attacks targeting their oil fields.
Big money will be made. Iran can start the reconstruction process, Trump said on social media.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said passage through the strait would be allowed under Iranian military management – further clouding the picture of who would be allowed to transit the strait.
Nevertheless, news of the ceasefire drove oil prices down and pushed stocks up Wednesday.
Fate of Iran’s nuclear and missile programs remains unclear
The US and Israel have battered Iran, but they do not appear to havehave not entirely eliminated the threats posed by Iran’s nuclear program, its ballistic missiles or its support for regional proxies, like Hezbollah. The U.S. and Israel said addressing those threats was a key justification for going to war.
Iran seems to still have the means to restart its nuclear program, which it says is peaceful, although it has enriched uranium up to 60% purity, a short, technical step from weapons-grade levels.
That stockpile of highly enriched uranium is still believed to be buried, and Tehran referred to the program differently in two versions of the ceasefire plan that it released. The version in Farsi included the phrase acceptance of enrichment for its nuclear program. That phrase was missing in the English versions shared by Iranian diplomats with journalists.
A senior Israeli official said the United States had coordinated the ceasefire with Israel in advance and said Israel’s government credited the massive crushing of the regime’s infrastructure with securing the agreement.
Speaking on condition of anonymity because they were discussing private diplomatic conversations, the official said Washington had committed to pressing for the removal of nuclear material and dismantling of Iran’s ballistic missile program.
Airstrikes reported in the hours after the deal is announced
Missile alerts were issued in the United Arab Emirates, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Kuwait after the ceasefire announcement. A gas processing facility in Abu Dhabi was ablaze after an incoming Iranian fire, officials said.
The fire stopped for a time, but then restarted.
The United Arab Emirates said Wednesday afternoon its air defences fired at an incoming Iranian missile barrage. Kuwait’s military said its forces responded to an extensive wave of drone attacks.
And Iranian state television reported that an oil refinery on Iran’s Lavan Island came under attack Wednesday. The report said that firefighters were working to contain the blaze, but no one had been hurt. It did not say who launched the attack.
More than 1,900 people had been killed in Iran as of late March, but the government has not updated the war’s toll for days.
In Lebanon, where Israel is fighting Iran-backed Hezbollah militants, more than 1,500 people have been killed. And 1 million people have been displaced. Eleven Israeli soldiers have died.
In Gulf Arab states and the occupied West Bank, more than two dozen people have died, while 23 have been reported dead in Israel, and 13 U.
