The Karnataka Assembly poll results are a resounding defeat for the BJP. This should come as a surprise because most people thought the brand of politics that thrives on injecting communal passion to the exclusion of all other issues, including economy and the question of livelihood for millions of people would continue in India. Whenever the questions of corruption and economic distress are raised, the BJP and its social media army steer the political discourse to a narrative of religious divide or point a finger at what had happened earlier in history. Added to this is the aggressive campaign on “freeing the country of the Congress” (Congress-mukt Bharat) and demonizing dynastic rule. When it seemed that the country would find it very difficult to free itself from this vicious grip, the Karnataka verdict came, giving not only the Congress more than double the seats the BJP has won but also rekindling hope that the Indian voter is still very aware. This victory has, of course, put the Congress firmly in the saddle of power denying the opportunity to the BJP to try its trick of horse-trading of MLAs. That was how the BJP captured power in Maharashtra, MP and Karnataka too in 2019 by toppling the Congress-JD(S) coalition government through defection of 17 MLAs that came to be known as “operation Lotus.”
The known tactics that have yielded good returns to the party in the past in the Hindi belt were also tried out in Karnataka this time around. The BJP pitched in with its best resources. Money was never a problem for the party. The party’s top campaigners, PM Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah, spent days on end in Karnataka and tried their utmost to swing the voters towards them. While Modi spent more than 10 days on the campaign trail, Amit Shah spent over a month, on & off, and went to the Taluka level to address small gatherings. Now it seems as if all that these two did was talk to thin air. The hot air balloon that was floated by many BJP followers that Modi’s charisma would swing people at the final moment has been proven to be a fraud claim. It has to be remembered that no matter how strong one may pose to be, every politician has a certain life span—limited shelf life—in India. Modi’s may not be ending but it surely is not going to go for long anymore. He himself proved it by going on such an intense campaign trail and losing most of the seats he had personally touched, including Jayanagar.
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Karnataka results proved that voters of India have their own minds and no one is blind. Now when Modi supporters have started claiming after his intensive campaigning that the fault lies with the local leadership and the defeat was because of them, one can be sure the BJP is unable to understand the situation facing it. Either Modi had no system of gathering correct feedback from the ground or his ego made him think people would vote for him because they adore him as a person regardless of how others behaved. That is precisely what a true democrat never thinks.
Similarly, Amit Shah had been anointed as the greatest Chanakya by his own party people. First of all, the real Chanakya never fought any election. As a strategist Amit Shah has had no opportunity to prove his mettle under adverse conditions. A true leader with brilliant ideas can only be measured when put under terrible duress. When good times roll any Amit Shah would shine and seem the best. In reality any joker in that position would have been considered the best in the crowd. This reminds of a similar situation in Orissa. When Janaki Ballav Patnaik (JB) was leading the Congress in this state, he was considered a master strategist by his family and those that benefitted from him. He was rumoured to have held the Congress High Command under his grip and he could predict and pre-empt all political hurdles well in time. Those were obviously his good times rolling. After some time people got tired with his debauchery and corruption. Season changed. Come election, he went ahead and contested from Athgarh thinking he would sweep the votes. His opponent was a lightweight Ranendra Pratap Swain of Janata Dal. JB lost that election by a huge margin of 42,000 votes while being projected as the Chief Ministerial candidate. That was proof enough that it was no acumen of JB but just that time favored him for a certain period and that situation changed.
In reality, time and tide always change. The glory attributed to Amit Shah is very similar to the type of praise that was heaped on people like Janaki Ballav. Amit Shah was plain simple lucky to be at a spot where, whatever he touched, turned to gold. Karnataka proved that Amit Shah is no master planner or strategist. His claim, in an interview to an English daily, days before results were declared showed he is a complete novice in reading people’s mind. He had said Karnataka would give results which could not be understood by conventional calculations. So very true! Shah’s calculations were either conventional and went awry or completely unfounded. For, had he been truly aware that Modi’s acceptability has sunk then he surely would have advised the PM to spend less time campaigning. That the Prime Minister spent so much time in Karnataka proves that both of these two top BJP leaders have somehow been distanced from actual voters and are not in touch with reality.
Now with the complete South of India BJP mukt, the leadership has to do hard thinking on how to regain voter confidence.
