Jennifer Morgan
It is hard to imagine a more appropriate venue for this year’s United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP30). Delegations from around the world will gather in the equatorial Brazilian city of Belém, on the edge of the Amazon – one of the front lines of climate vulnerability. Some 40% of the city’s population lives below sea level, and around 82% of residents walk on streets with no shade. Heat and humidity define their daily life, and nature directly sustains their existence.
But as COP30 gets underway, there is no point in pretending that governments are rising to the occasion. The UN Environment Programme’s latest emissions gap report makes clear that without stronger governmental action, we will inevitably see temperature levels at which crops fail, cities overheat, economies falter, and the human toll soars. This is the reality that policymakers will confront in Belém, and they should feel a sense of collective responsibility to confront the alarming gap between what countries have put on the table and what is urgently required. Getting to climate safety will not be easy. But acknowledging how far we have come should inspire hope that we can make it the rest of the way. From 2005-15, oil, gas, and coal power generation met 68% of the growth in global electricity demand. From 2015-25, renewables met 67% of the increase in demand.
In China, President Xi Jinping says he wants to use the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan to “accelerate” the construction of a new energy system and promote the safe, reliable, and orderly replacement of fossil energy. In India, renewables met 51.5% of total electricity demand in July this year. And in the European Union, GDP grew by about 68% between 1990 and 2023, while net greenhouse-gas emissions decreased by approximately 37%, according to preliminary data.
The falling costs of renewable energy, electric vehicles, and battery storage clear the path for governments, civil society, and regional and municipal leaders to tackle the challenge of climate safety. The alternative, apathy and defeat, is no alternative at all.
So, what needs to happen at COP30? First, governments must reaffirm the Paris agreement and its goal of keeping the global average temperature within 2°C, and preferably within 1.5°C, of the pre-industrial level. With the Trump administration actively working to slow the phase-out of fossil fuels, confirming this target will send an important signal to investors and planners around the world.
Second, governments must accelerate implementation of what has already been agreed. The 2023 Global Stocktake in Dubai called on countries to triple renewable energy capacity, double energy efficiency, promote a just transition away from fossil fuels, and halt (and then reverse) deforestation by 2030. Agreement on these goals was hard-won; now they must be pursued with the necessary speed and scale.
As Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva suggested on the first day of COP30, governments could create a roadmap detailing various pathways to a just transition away from fossil fuels, which would require an agreement on what a just transition must include. They could supplement this with initiatives to overcome barriers to renewables, such as commitments to invest in electric grids and battery storage. And a similar approach could lay out a path to achieving zero deforestation by 2030.
As the host of COP30, the Brazilian government is already calling for the summit to “accelerate the implementation of the Global Stocktake.” We need to turn that catchphrase into concrete progress by adopting a forward-looking gameplan that identifies the pathways, policies, and supporting measures needed to close the gap to the Paris agreement’s 1.5°C target.
But redoubling our efforts is not only about accelerating progress where it is lagging; it is also about taking advantage of the pace of the transformation that is well underway – delivering jobs and economic growth – in many places. The progress made in recent years has been unmistakable: wind and solar power have more than tripled since 2015, and EVs have grown from less than 1% back then to over 20% today.
Third, countries should demonstrate how they intend to align the steps they are taking today with what is needed to reach net-zero emissions. This matters because several countries have recently offered new climate commitments that seem to fall short of meeting their own net-zero goals, whether by 2050 or later.
Of course, access to finance and investment remains essential for developing countries to decarbonize and bolster climate resilience. COP30 can make real progress by securing commitments to mobilize more resources for vulnerable countries to help them adapt to rising sea levels, strong storms, prolonged heat waves, and other consequences of climate change.
The Brazilian hosts have set an ambitious agenda, but the defining test will be whether the world takes steps to close the widening gap to the 1.5°C goal. For Lula, securing a win would solidify his legacy as a champion for the people around the world who stand to suffer the most if we fail.
The writer, a former German state secretary and special envoy for international climate action, is a former international executive director of Greenpeace International.
©Project Syndicate
