Bhubaneswar: A simulation study conducted by the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Kanpur and IIT Hyderabad claimed that Khurda district has crossed the peak of the second wave of Covid-19 pandemic and the caseloads are likely to dip in the coming days.
The study was based on a mathematical model of the pandemic authored by researchers of the premier educational institutions.
According to the model developed by the researchers which analysed the data of several districts of India, the caseload in Khurda district is likely to come down in the days to come.
According to the study, the peak of the second wave of the pandemic was expected by May 12 and after that the cases are likely to come down with the actual infections falling to double digits anytime after June 29.
The model said that Covid-19 cases in the state started rising from March 28 this year and touched the peak around May 12. The authors claimed that the lockdown helped in delaying the peak a bit.
The study model claimed that the total cases in the state could be around 747 by May 31 and the number will continue to go down in the month of June.
The estimation of the peak level in the district was done through the Susceptible, Undetected, Tested (positive) and Removed Approach (SUTRA), sources said.
“There are several novel features in this model. First, whereas previous papers have divided the patient population into asymptomatic and infected, SUTRA takes into account the fact that there would be large number of undetected asymptomatic patients,” the authors said in the report.
“Second, the model explicitly takes into account the spatial spread of a pandemic over time, through a parameter called ‘reach’. Third, the model uses numerically stable methods for estimating the values of all the parameters using the daily new infections data.”
The study was conducted by M Agrawal of IIT Kanpur, M Kanitkar (Integrated Defence Staff) and M Vidyasagar of IIT Hyderabad, sources said.
