With all eyes set on the Presidential hustings, what’s clear as of now is that the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is not inclined to give a second term to incumbent President Pranab Mukherjee. In spite of Pranab doubling over backwards to please the Prime Minister at an individual level and behaving in a manner most unbecoming of a President of the Union of India, his cherished dream of a second term seems to have crumbled.
What stands essentially against Mukherjee is his Congress background; something that makes him anathema to the present ruling dispensation. His name has been proposed by some Opposition parties, notably Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, but the BJP was not enthused.
As the President himself has stated that he would consider a second term only if there’s a consensus on his name, the issue remains more or less settled that someone else would step into his shoes in July. Mukherjee is one of the senior-most politicians having both administrative and political experience albeit with a dubious track record. He conducted himself with hardly any dignity through his term.
Several names are afloat, and a consensus seems unlikely between the ruling BJP led NDA and Opposition including the UPA. It would look like the BJP will not let go of an opportunity to put its own person in Rashtrapati Bhavan as it has a slightly upper hand. Although the BJP does not have the required numbers for the Presidential poll that takes place first, followed by the Vice Presidential poll, it seems to be marching ahead.
Amongst the names doing the rounds, are those of technocrat Nandan Nilekeni who headed the Aadhaar programme; something that was initiated by the Manmohan Singh government and carried forward by the NDA. He had contested as an independent candidate backed by the Congress in the last Lok Sabha polls, but had lost miserably.
If his name is acceptable to the NDA, it is likely that a consensus could emerge around him to the extent that the Congress may not be averse to backing him. Another prominent possibility is of Jharkhand Governor Draupadi Murmu, but her saffron background would mean no consensus is possible. She could represent the tribal community, the disadvantaged sections, and also qualify to be the first Oriya to be made President.
If her name comes up, the ruling BJD in Orissa will have, possibly, zero excuse to not back her. This would help the NDA come closer to the numbers needed for a win.
Another name is of NCP chief Sharad Pawar, who is one of the senior-most politicians around today. Pawar has good relations with leaders across the political spectrum, but networking skills alone will not be of much help in realpolitik, where multiple interests take precedence over personal equations. What the UPA could hope for by fielding him, however, is to enlist the backing of the Shiv Sena — a regional entity that had, in the past, broken ranks with the NDA and backed a Congress nominee — Pratibha Patil — for Presidential post a decade ago on the grounds of ‘Marathi manoos’.
While some think that the two Telugu ruling parties — the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) and the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) — would back the NDA nominee, it now turns out the TRS support cannot be taken for granted, especially after BJP chief Amit Shah took a tour of Telangana state and whipped up passions against the K Chandrasekhar Rao-led state government.
However, it remains to be seen how far Rao would go to oppose Modi. TDP being part of the NDA alliance could stand with the ruling alliance at the Centre. Unpredictable also is the stand of the two AIADMK factions in Tamil Nadu, while the DMK will solidly back the UPA nominee. Orissa’s BJD is yet to make its stand clear, and it could go either way, while the Trinamool Congress is set to oppose any NDA nominee, and so is the Left, as also the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) in Bihar.
While BJP president Amit Shah held a meeting with RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat in Nagpur this past week, there’s no indication so far that the NDA choice could end up in the pockets of the Sangh supremo. He himself has ruled it out in the face of a recommendation of his name coming from the Shiv Sena a while ago. The two BJP stalwarts, LK Advani and Murli Manohar Joshi, are also out of the picture in the context of the CBI filing charge sheets against them in the Babri Masjid demolition case.
Under the circumstances, as of now, it’s all guesswork as to who will finally climb Raisina hill.
