Almost two years into the war in Gaza, the Israeli security cabinet has approved yet another military escalation — a proposed takeover of Gaza City. This move, spearheaded by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, aims to achieve five objectives: disarming Hamas, securing the return of all hostages, demilitarizing Gaza, ensuring Israeli security control in the region, and establishing a civil administration that is independent of both Hamas and the Palestinian Authority.
However, the move seems to reflect more of Netanyahu’s domestic political strategy than a coherent military plan. The decision was made despite strong opposition and serious warnings from Israeli military leaders, who cautioned that it could exacerbate the humanitarian crisis and keep Israel in perpetual war.
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Nevertheless, Netanyahu has advanced his plan, which offers him an unspoken advantage: it buys him time to secure his political position. For his current Far-Right coalition partners, this means extending the conflict. Time and again, his allies, Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, have obstructed ceasefire negotiations, threatening to destabilise his government if the war were to conclude. Yet, Netanyahu’s strategy to encircle Gaza City does not fully meet the demands of his coalition partners. In fact, Ben Gvir and Smotrich are advocating for a complete occupation of the region, not just Gaza City, as a preliminary step toward rebuilding Jewish settlements in Gaza and ultimately annexing the area.
The military concerns reflect a widespread sentiment among the Israeli public. Numerous opinion polls indicate that a majority of Israelis favour a ceasefire that would secure the return of the remaining hostages, numbering about 50, and bring an end to the conflict. Analysts and political opponents argue that Netanyahu’s current decision-making is out of touch with both military counsel and public opinion. It is, instead, driven by the urgent need for his political survival.
Netanyahu’s plan for a takeover of Gaza also places him and Israel in a position of unprecedented international isolation. Although US President Donald Trump’s administration has provided him with considerable leeway in the Gaza conflict, the escalating famine and humanitarian crisis have eroded global support for Israel’s actions.
The repercussions of the latest cabinet decision were swift and clear: Germany — Israel’s second most crucial strategic ally after the United States — announced it would suspend some military exports to Israel, potentially prompting other European Union nations to further diminish their relations with the country.
Despite receiving support from the United States, Israel is grappling with a significant crisis in international credibility, which may take a long time to overcome. A recent Pew poll indicates that global perceptions of Israel are now more negative than positive. In early 2025, a majority of respondents from countries like the Netherlands (78 per cent), Japan (79 per cent), Spain (75 per cent), Australia (74 per cent), Turkey (93 per cent), and Sweden (75 per cent) expressed an unfavourable opinion of Israel.
The Israeli military intervention since the 7 October 2023 Hamas attack has so far claimed the lives of over 60,000 Palestinians. As images of starving children in Gaza have flooded the news in recent weeks, many of Israel’s allies in the Western world are reaching a breaking point with its policies. In a significant shift in the global sentiment, France has announced plans to recognise Palestinian statehood, prompting the United Kingdom and Canada to pledge similar actions. Germany has also initiated steps toward recognition, while Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has suggested that his country’s acknowledgment of Palestine is imminent. Additionally, Spain and Sweden have called for the suspension of the European Union’s trade agreement with Israel, and the Netherlands has officially designated Israel as a “security threat,” citing efforts to sway public opinion in the country.
A takeover of Gaza escalates the fight with Hamas without any way of ending it. While twenty months of attacks have severely weakened Hamas, the group’s capacity to mount a limited insurgency remains. And insurgencies are hard to defeat, as the US learned it the hard way in Vietnam and Iraq. Perpetual wars leave everyone worse off.
