Mumbai: The rupee depreciated 13 paise to close at fresh record low of 85.65 (provisional) against the US dollar Tuesday, ending the year with a sharp 3 per cent loss on significant foreign fund outflows and a strong greenback in global markets.
Forex traders said the rupee has been under continued pressure amid the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance on rate cuts and the “Trump factor” driving up the dollar index (DXY) and US 10-year bond yields.
Additionally, slowing domestic macroeconomic growth, widening trade deficit and persistent foreign fund outflows have further fuelled the rupee’s depreciation.
At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 85.54 and touched the lowest level of 85.66 against the greenback during intra-day trade. The unit ended the session at 85.65 (provisional) against the dollar, registering a fall of 13 paise over its previous close.
On Monday, the rupee dropped 4 paise to 85.52 against the US dollar.
The domestic unit has depreciated against the greenback by almost 3 per cent from 83.16 December 29, 2023, to 85.65 on December 31, 2024.
The local currency breached the crucial 84-level October 10, surpassed 85-a-dollar mark December 19 and even touched the life-time low of 85.80 intraday on December 27, recording the steepest single-day fall in nearly two years.
According to Anuj Choudhary – Research Analyst at Mirae Asset Sharekhan, the rupee is expected to trade with a negative bias on elevated crude oil prices, overall strength in the US dollar and month-end dollar demand from importers.
Moreover, persistent selling pressure by foreign funds added further strain on the currency. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) offloaded Rs 1,893.16 crore in the capital markets on net basis Monday, according to exchange data.
In 2024, foreign investors significantly scaled back their investments in Indian equities, with net inflows amounting to a little over Rs 5,000 crore, as elevated domestic valuations, coupled with geopolitical uncertainties prompted investors to adopt a more cautious stance.
In 2023, Rs 1.71 lakh crore net investment was made in the domestic equity market.
“However, any intervention by the RBI may support the rupee at lower levels. Volumes may remain thin due to the New Year holiday. USD/INR spot price is expected to trade in a range of 85.40 to 85.85,” Anuj Choudhary – Research Analyst at Mirae Asset Sharekhan – said.
India’s external debt rose to USD 711.8 billion as of September this year, up 4.3 per cent over June 2024, as per the data released by the Finance Ministry. At the end of September 2023, the external debt stood at USD 637.1 billion.
Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading lower by 0.11 per cent at 108.01.
Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, surged 0.57 per cent to USD 74.41 per barrel in futures trade.
On the domestic equity market front, the 30-share benchmark index Sensex closed 109.12 points, or 0.14 per cent lower, at 78,139.01 points. The Nifty settled on a flat note at 23,644.80 points.
On the domestic macroeconomic front, India’s current account deficit (CAD) moderated marginally to USD 11.2 billion or 1.2 per cent of GDP year-on-year in the July-September quarter of 2024-25, according to Reserve Bank data.
The CAD, an indicator of the country’s external payment scenario, was USD 11.3 billion or 1.3 per cent of GDP during the second quarter of 2023-24.
PTI
