Results of Brihan Mumbai Municipal Corporation election has reaffirmed the necessity and inevitability of coalition politics. Shiv Sena with its tally of 84 and the BJP with its pack of 82 are faced with the unenviable task of raising their white flags and mending fences if either party needs to rest easy and be assured of a stable majority in the 227-seat municipal corporation.
But that is unlikely to happen, at least until both parties run out of other, workable alternatives. Shiv Sena is said to be looking at the Congress, NCP and independents to cobble together a number that would help it run the show.
The BJP, on its part, is banking on support from some independents and the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) of Raj Thackeray which it had cast aside during the 2014 general elections. The Sena snubbed the MNS when it had proposed a tie-up before this election.
The fresh hurt keeps alive the BJP’s hopes of support from the 14 corporators of that party who should have, by now, forgotten the earlier snub.
Compared with the past two elections – in 2007 and 2012 – the BJP has vastly improved its position in the wealthiest municipal corporation of the country from 31 to 82, while the Sena has returned to its numbers from the election in 2007 where it had won 84 seats.
The biggest loser in the poll has been the Congress which dropped its tally from 52 in 2012 to 31 corporators now. But since politics operates on necessities, the possibility of Shiv Sena seeking support of the Congress to run the BMC, and the latter, too, setting aside its compunctions to join hands with a non-secular party cannot be ruled out.
While the BMC election gave indications of growing support for the BJP, it has also given signals that the success of the party in power at the Centre has less to do with its own performance than it has with the failure of the Congress. It is also notable that the NCP has risen from zero seats in 2012 to 7 now.
If the mandate delivered in Mumbai is to be taken as an indicator of the way people in other parts of the country are set to vote, or have voted in the case of some assemblies, it will be a very tough situation for all parties.
The BJP will certainly have a tougher time than the rest. Fractured mandates are bound to cause instability, which is not good what with the country already reeling from the evil effects of demonetisation. Under the circumstances, it is important to accommodate the vagaries of mandates and create systems that would smoothen transition of governance without hold-ups.
The recent example of Tamil Nadu and how the Governor, at the behest of the Union Government, behaved is a glaring instance of everything not functioning well as a democracy under the Damodardass Modi government.
Apart from this, the wild idea being floated by Modi of having simultaneous elections to all State Assemblies and the Lok Sabha will have a very negative impact on the national economy.
What we all have to consider is the rude fact that with fractured mandates becoming the rule of the day, not the exception, simultaneous elections need not necessarily solve the problems that the present Prime Minister wants to abolish for his own comfort.
Similarly, the crazy idea of State Funding of Elections is something that needs to worry all regional parties, independents and smaller national outfits. For instance, it is difficult to imagine a scenario that exists in a state like Uttar Pradesh where the Samajvadi Party (SP), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Congress, Ajit Singh’s outfit and so many other players are in the field in single constituencies.
The natural query would be as to how many candidates/parties would be funded through tax payers’ money and why. It would be difficult to fund only national parties and ignore regional organizations.
If Damodardass Modi is driving towards a 2 Party American style democracy in India, all we got to do is look at the USA of today with Donald Trump insisting on building a 1900 mile long wall at the Mexico-US border.
America took some centuries to elect a mad man like Trump. With limited 2 men choice, we Indians may end up electing a Ramdas Athavale or even a Modi for a second time as Prime Minister.
Trump has to work hard to break systems in the US. In India, all our systems will crumble of their own free will as was seen with the Reserve Bank of India during the Demon-etization catastrophe.
