By Malay Mishra
President Putin came to India to attend the 23rd India-Russia bilateral summit with a heavy Ukraine baggage. He had just finished his marathon meeting with US Special Envoy Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Kushner in Moscow when he came calling to Delhi for a crisp 27-hours Summit. However, despite the hoopla and din of the visit which was keenly watched by all power blocs with interest, one thing missed everybody’s attention, the revival of the Russia-India-China (RIC) grouping.
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RIC had found expression in a Kremlin policy paper believed to be authored by then PM Primakov in the late 1990s and after holding a couple of ministerial meetings had quickly slid into oblivion. This could find a new life. Given the tumultuous developments of recent months, and particularly after the second advent of Trump in the White House things have not been good for India badgered by a stiff 50% sanctions and for Modi at the receiving end of humiliation on the supposed ceasefire which was “arranged” by the US President.
The Modi government seemed bent upon leveraging the Putin visit to the hilt knowing fully well that the Ukraine peace talks were leading nowhere. The visit therefore gave an opportune moment for Modi to smoke the peace pipe again. India is not neutral, it is on the side of peace, he declared. On the substantive side Delhi had to look for alternatives if the ongoing India-US trade talks did not lead to a satisfactory outcome and thus the elaborate economic talks took place underpinning the multifaceted dimensions of the relationship as part of the Programme for the Development of Strategic Areas of India-Russia Economic Cooperation till 2030, and related agreements to trade in national currencies, remove non-tariff barriers, provide more market access on both sides with areas such as fertilizers, pharmaceuticals, mineral resources and critical raw materials brought on board to raise the level of bilateral trade to $100 billion US on the non-energy side.
Oil imports from Russia having reduced to nearly 40% both in volume and value under sustained US pressure and playing lukewarm to Moscow’s entreaties on SU 57s and S-500 (the fear of CAATSA looming large), India needs to play both sides in the muti-alignment mode. And now comes the crux. Can India stand up to the challenge? This was Modi’s finest diplomatic hour. Note that China has fully supported India’s stand to keep buying oil from Russia. Delhi had therefore every reason to be cautious and coy on both arms and energy and instead root for the connectivity corridors to the Arctic and Polar regions, sign the RELOS (Reciprocal Exchange of Logistics Support) giving Russia a berth in the Indian Ocean in lieu of the lucrative deals on the Russian Far East with defence, security and minerals exploration being the nodal parameters, and advancing the FTA on the India-Eurasian Economic Union agreement, marking a new phase in the relationship.
The visit had been presaged by a joint op-ed piece sent by Ambassadors of the three leading European powers, France, Germany and UK, denouncing Russia’s war with Ukraine which had met with a mild rebuke from the Indian Foreign Office. With his back to the wall Putin has so far played his cards close to his chest, rebuffed US and EU’s efforts to stop the war insisting on territory grab, and cautioning Ukraine against joining any European grouping, NATO or EU. Of course, the Ukrainian President has been vocal in resisting such ceding of territories which had been originally favoured by Trump in his 27-point peace plan (now reduced to 20). The US President has made it the focal point of his peace diplomacy though it is not clear whether India, also a part of the lateral peace efforts, stands party to the Trump plan or not. After playing to the gallery with more optics than content, Modi could pitch the ball to the next level of trilateral cooperation, that which will find favour with both Russia and China.
In a recent opinion piece, the Chinese Consul General in Kolkata advocated that China and India could synergize their efforts for global peace and prosperity, an allusion to Xi’s Global Governance Initiative.
The angle of forming a new alternative to US hegemony cannot be missed while the pending bilateral issues can wait. On the other hand, with the current state of no-holds barred relations between Xi and Putin the latter’s every move in Delhi would have stood endorsed by Beijing.
While the export of skilled Indian manpower to Russia, information, culture and visa facilitation formed the other elements of the longstanding India-Russia relationship touted as the “polestar” and steadiest of all, India would also have to cater to the vagaries of the White House with the Damocles sword of sanctions hanging overhead. Thus, soon after the Putin visit Modi had a “warm” telephone conversation with Trump as part of the Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership, a status which Delhi has also accorded to Moscow. The Trilateral, which had found a resurgence at the SCO Summit in Tianjin, could test Delhi’s mettle in the days ahead.
The writer is a retired diplomat and foreign policy analyst.
Views expressed are personal.
