Poland’s Right-wing Opposition candidate Karol Nawrocki, backed by the nationalist Law and Justice Party (PiS) and US President Donald Trump’s administration, narrowly won the presidential election securing 50.89 per cent vote against liberal Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski’s 49.11 per cent. The result was a dramatic shift from initial exit poll results released immediately after voting ended. In that survey, which had a 2 percentage point margin of error, Trzaskowski was shown the winner garnering 50.3 per cent vote compared to 49.7 per cent for Nawrocki. The turnout was 71.6 per cent. Right-wing advances in Poland come close on the heels of victory by liberal forces in Romania only a few weeks back.
The results are a clear indication of the growing frustration of the people, especially young voters, with the brand of politics practised by established liberal parties that have failed to deliver. Europe is being swept by Far-Right parties for this very reason. Traditional voters are seemingly tired of pro-immigration, pro LGBTQ and other policies of Left parties and the trend shows the populace is reposing faith in parties that swear by regional interests and nationalism, no matter whether it is pseudo or genuine. Nawrocki, backed by the nationalist PiS and also by the Trump administration, could rightly gauge the mood of the Polish population whom he won over with his promise of pulling Poland away from the European mainstream in a more populist direction.
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A Nawrocki victory deals a body blow to the government of Prime Minister Donald Tusk which has already been plagued by many of its legislative efforts blocked by PiS-aligned incumbent President Andrzej Duda. The election result is likely to have repercussions in bigger proportions. Though the president under Polish constitution has no powers to rule the country, he has the veto power to every legislative measure of the government. Tusk should now be prepared for challenges from the new president to what he wants in the form of legislations. Rubbing salt into Tusk’s injuries, Nawrocki said in his speech immediately after the polls closed: “We will save Poland, we will not allow the power of Donald Tusk to be complete.” Hence, Nawrocki’s presidency means a high level conflict between the president and the prime minister leading to governance paralysis for all practical purposes. It is clear that it will be difficult for the government to implement key reforms because the president can stall most of them.
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The Polish presidency is essentially a ceremonial function, and the government is in charge of foreign policy, but the president can veto legislation or send it for judicial review. The Tusk-led coalition does not have the votes in parliament to override that. This is why Nawrocki could make it very difficult for the PM to govern. Watchers of Polish politics say the Opposition camp, now led by Nawrocki, may also strive for early parliamentary polls, though it is not clear if the gamble will pay off.
The victory of Nawrocki offers important lessons to liberal politicians as he emerged like a phoenix battling a series of revelations about his past. He is accused of helping arrange prostitutes for guests of a luxury hotel while working as a security guard. He is also known to have taken part in fights as a football hooligan and that he acquired an apartment from a pensioner under questionable circumstances. Even these could not deter conservative voters from strongly backing Nawrocki since they were worried about Trzaskowski’s liberal record as mayor of Warsaw, where he supported LGBTQ+ rights and did not see eye to eye with the powerful Roman Catholic Church hierarchy on many issues.
Nawrocki ran on the ticket of making Poland “normal,” hinting strongly he would fight the EU’s federalist tendencies, oppose climate policy, torpedo attempts to give more rights to LGBTQ+ people or relax Poland’s strict abortion rights.
These are familiar election pledges being mouthed by Far-Right forces in many countries in Europe, which have been facing growing immigration problems in recent times. It is time for Left leaning parties and leaders to tune in to the voice of the people.
