As Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan faces a no-confidence motion moved March 28 and his fate hangs in the balance, a period of political instability looms large before that country. Three Opposition parties – Pakistan People’s Party, PML (N) and Jamiat Ulema–e-Islam Fazl – have closed ranks in their bid to topple his party Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insuf (PTI)-run government. Most significantly, the military establishment, which is known to have propped up the government helping Imran win the elections in 2018, has made it clear that it would play a neutral role in this parliamentary exercise. The message that it seeks to give is that it will not interfere with the political process. Nothing can be further from the truth since in Pakistan politics the military plays a pivotal role. When it supposedly distances itself from Khan, it suggests not only fissures in the understanding between the two, but also a deeper trouble brewing in the relationship of the military and the Prime Minister. There is also a distinct possibility that this drama could be happening to divert international pressure on Pakistan to take sides in the present Ukraine war scenario. Russia, which has endeared itself to the Pakistan establishment after the Afghanistan events of last August, obviously wants active support. On the other hand, the West and especially the US, would be demanding obeisance from the Pak military. An internal political turmoil could act as the best antidote in such a situation since Pakistan, till date, has avoided getting closer to either side.
The PTI organised a big rally on the eve of the no-confidence motion to demonstrate Khan’s support base. His government is struggling with the required numbers to stay in power after 20 of his party legislators declared they would join the Opposition ranks. What appeared to be political rhetoric and a well known survival strategy used by India’s ruling parties at different times, Khan has alleged that a foreign hand is working to bring down his government. The no-confidence motion, he categorically stated, is a conspiracy hatched abroad.
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A complex situation has arisen in Pakistan with the Prime Minister reportedly trying to break himself free of the army’s control and taking decisions with international ramifications that do not find favour with the army. He has for some time been cozying up to Russia and China and moving away from the US. In February, he visited the two former countries, whereas the Joe Biden administration is yet to send an invitation to him. The US has apparently become cold towards Khan as its relationship with Pakistan has so long been shaped by its policy towards Afghanistan. From the moment the US began the exercise of pulling out its troops from Afghanistan, Pakistan’s importance in America’s scheme of things waned. The US is reportedly not happy with the way Khan and Pakistan’s intelligence service – the ISI – monitored the developments in Afghanistan leading to the installation of the Taliban government.
One explanation for the rift between the military and Khan is the ISI chief’s appointment. The military had presented Lt General Nadeem Anjum as its candidate to succeed Lt Gen. Faiz Hameed, for the next chief of the ISI in October, 2021. But, Khan dragged his feet over that, leading to an impasse. This was embarrassing for the military which smarted under the fact that Khan did not accept its choice. The appointment was finally made as per the military’s preference. Faiz Hameed is seen as a Khan loyalist and known to have helped him in the 2018 election. He is believed to be Khan’s choice for the next chief of army staff. The current chief of army staff, General Bajwa, who is serving his second three-year term, is set to retire in November. General Bajwa, it is an open secret, wants another extension to which Khan may not give his nod.
That apart, Pakistan’s military establishment wants the country’s closeness to the US to continue, while Khan is in favour of cementing the relationship with Russia and China which have been friendly towards his government. This is the reason, analysts believe, which has prompted Khan to refer to a foreign hand that he believes is working against him so that his policy of building bridges with China and Russia is thwarted. He has himself stated that the US and the West do not want Pakistan to follow an independent foreign policy.
In recent weeks, more than 20 lawmakers deserted Khan, leaving him short of the minimum 172 that he needs for a simple majority in parliament. Political analysts expect Khan’s supporters to persuade some of the turncoats to return to the fold. The National Assembly has 342 members. Imran and other PTI leaders are trying to get three allies, the PML-Q, the Balochistan Awami Party (BAP), and the Muttahida Qaumi Movement-Pakistan, which have between them 17 seats, to declare their opposition to the no-confidence motion. Imran Khan’s strategy appears to be to buy time and hope for a last-minute deal with the Pakistan army and the ISI. A snap poll, a year ahead from when it is due in 2023, could also be on the cards.
All these boil down to the fact that however much Imran Khan tries to carve out an independent path in Pakistan politics, it is well nigh impossible for any political configuration in the country to break free from the military.
