War Clouds Hovering

War clouds are ominously gathering across the European sky. Things are getting hot along the borders of Ukraine and in territories in Eastern Europe surrounding that country. The US and Britain have started moving some of their diplomatic staff and similarly church authorities also are asking their missionaries to get out of Ukraine’s capital Kyiv. The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) has begun arms buildup for a likely imminent confrontation with Russia. Life in Kyiv itself, as reported by local media, appears normal and the people’s mood is one of ‘patient resolve’ with restaurants full and children sledding on snow-dusted hills. That does not mean the citizens are naive about the possibility of a military incursion from Russia as the West and the US have been warning but rather the Ukrainians are sending a message across the globe that they have learnt to live with the constant threat of Russian aggression. That probably sums up the current situation in which the US-UK are being charged with prematurely pressing the panic button for an immediate invasion of Ukraine by Russia. Moscow continues denying plans for armed incursions while amassing troops along Ukraine’s borders and activating subversive forces to bring the country within its orbit of influence. Europe appears to be fast heading for a crisis. The fight is for the control of Ukraine that would redraw the balance of power in Europe and will decide whether the NATO, the USA, the UK and the European Union on the one hand and Russia on the other would rule the roost.

A British intelligence report, made public January 24, suggests Russia is planning to activate its ‘agents’ in the separatists-controlled eastern parts of Ukraine to engineer a regime change and prop up a pro-Russian government. For this, if needed, it will use its over 100,000 soldiers deployed near the borders. This seems to be the continuation of actions recently taken by the USA slapping sanctions on some former Ukraine ministers believed to be working in league with Russia to topple the Ukraine government. Though the credibility of the report may be questioned as the UK has not yet disclosed the basis of its intelligence, the experience of 2014 when Russia took control of Ukraine’s port area of Crimea does indicate such a scenario is plausible. Russia has said it has no plans to invade Ukraine, but the buildup of Russian troops along the border has prompted the US to provide Ukraine with increased military aid for national defence. A nearly 200,000-pound shipment of ‘lethal aid’ approved by President Biden, including ammunition for Ukraine’s frontline troops, arrived in the country over the weekend, the US Embassy said.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said January 23 Russia has two options – the path of diplomacy and dialogue and the path of its renewed aggression. If it exercises the second option, massive consequences will follow, he threatened. This is all normal diplomatic sabre-rattling. The truth is, both the NATO and its allies and Russia are playing a dangerous game to further their respective geopolitical interests.

At the same time there are chinks in NATO’s armour as the EU countries are showing signs of disunity over taking concerted actions against Russia such as stringent sanctions and military exchanges. The head of the German Navy has resigned after giving a statement wherein he claimed Ukraine would not be able to regain the Crimean Peninsula, which Russia annexed in 2014, and suggesting that Russian President Vladimir Putin deserved ‘respect.’ This utterance became extremely controversial and forced the Navy Chief out of his job. Germany, which is to play a key role in supply of gas from Russia to Europe, has already made it clear it would not allow its airspace to be used for armed actions in Ukraine nor would it permit its weapons to be used by Eastern European countries during confrontation in Ukraine. This is a clear message that everyone is not ganging up against Russia.

Exploiting the divisions in the EU, Russia has stepped up its propaganda war and denounced the decision of the USA and the UK to withdraw their diplomatic staff. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has accused the West of whipping up ‘hysteria.’ What is happening, he claimed, is not because of what Russia is doing, but because of what NATO and the USA are doing. The latter have been trying to include Ukraine into NATO which Russia opposes tooth and nail since that would be a body blow to its defence system.

It could well be that the Russian buildup is primarily to force the West not to redraw Europe’s security map on the eastern flank. It also could be Russia’s ploy to compel NATO to pull back troops and weapons from former Communist countries in Eastern Europe that joined it after the Cold War. Predictably, Washington has shot down the demands which it says are ‘non-starters.’ It has flatly said it is only ready to discuss other ideas on arms control, missile deployments and confidence-building measures. Russia is awaiting a written US response this week after talks last week yielded no breakthrough.

At this stage British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has adopted an alarmist posture and said Russian incursion into Ukraine is a likely scenario, though he hoped “sense can still prevail.” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told EU President Charles Michel by phone that it was important for Kyiv that the EU showed unity. The European Commission, the EU executive body, has proposed a 1.2-billion euro ($1.36-billion) financial aid package to help Ukraine mitigate the effects of the conflict with Russia.

The only hope is the planned meeting this week of political advisers from Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany in Paris for bringing Europe back from the brink of a bloody confrontation. But, past records do not hold out any great promise for resolution of the conflict. The advisory given by several countries, including France, Norway and Latvia, to their citizens against non-essential travel to Ukraine makes the situation look gloomy.