Why new state party now

SUNIT MISHRA, OP

Bhubaneswar: Speculation is growing that several political leaders in Odisha are quietly exploring the formation of a new regional party. Observers say the state’s current political landscape has prompted renewed thinking about whether space exists for another regional outfit. Looking at the present political scenario in the state, many are also thinking that there is space for another regional outfit.

The results of the 2024 general elections help explain the rising interest. The outcome underscored voters’ continued affinity for regional parties, even as seat tallies told a different story. In the 147-member Odisha Assembly, the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) secured the highest vote share, winning 1,01,02,454 votes or 40.22 per cent, but translated that support into 51 seats.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) followed closely with 1,00,64,827 votes or 40.07 per cent, yet won 78 seats which is 27 more than the BJD, enabling it to form the government. The BJD, despite polling 37,627 more votes than the BJP statewide, fell short in seat count. The Congress garnered 33,31,319 votes or 13.26 per cent. Voters opting for ‘None of the Above’ (NOTA) accounted for 2,57,355 votes or 1.02 per cent.

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Independent candidates collectively received 8,43,702 votes or 3.39 per cent. Three Independents won Assembly seats but later joined the BJP; a common post-election development in state politics, where successful Independents often align with the ruling party. An analysis of the 2024 Lok Sabha election results in Odisha shows that the BJP secured 1,13,35,549 votes (45.34 per cent). Riding on this vote share, the BJP won 20 of the state’s 21 Lok Sabha seats. The BJD finished second in terms of vote share, polling 93,82,711 votes or 37.53 per cent. However, the regional party failed to win a single Lok Sabha seat. The BJP polled 19,52,838 more votes than the BJD. The Congress secured 31,30,056 votes (12.52 per cent). Though third in vote share, the Congress managed to win one Lok Sabha seat — Koraput. A total of 3,24,588 voters in Odisha opted for NOTA, rejecting all contesting candidates. Independent candidates collectively secured 6,50,336 votes (2.60 per cent).

The overall results indicate that despite electoral setbacks, public faith in regional political forces in the state remains intact. This has triggered a political gamble of sorts for the formation of a new regional party in Odisha.

During the last general election, it is known that a significant section of BJD workers, along with their family members, voted for the BJP. This suggests that the votes secured by the BJD in both the Assembly and Lok Sabha elections came largely without grassroots organisational support. It also points to the party’s failure to effectively channel campaign resources to the grassroots during the election. Despite these challenges, the BJD secured 1,01,02,454 votes in the Assembly elections and 93,82,711 votes in the Lok Sabha polls. This indicates that voters in Odisha continue to place trust in regional political formations, even bypassing party cadres. Against this backdrop, political circles are abuzz with speculation that senior leader Bijoy Mohapatra, BJP leader Dilip Ray and BJD leader Pranab Prakash Das, popularly known as Bobby, are exploring the possibility of launching a new regional party.

Observers believe they have sensed a political vacuum for a credible regional force in the state. It is also noteworthy that during the 2024 elections, there was no visible wave in Odisha in favour of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Similarly, there was no discernible nationwide surge in favour of the BJP. It is largely agreed upon that BJD president and former chief minister Naveen Patnaik bears primary responsibility for the party’s defeat. His decision to aggressively project close aide VK Pandian did not fi nd acceptance among the people of Odisha. In that sense, it would be more accurate to say that the BJD lost the 2024 elections rather than saying that the BJP won. It is worth noting that the present generation largely recognises only Naveen Patnaik and the BJD. Many people engaged in politics in Odisha make little effort to understand the state’s political history.

In December 1997, Naveen did not have the ability to name all the districts of Odisha. It is also important to note that the BJD was not created by Naveen or by any single individual. If credit for the party’s formation is to be assigned, it could be attributed to the then Congress chief minister and the political figures around him. At the time, widespread public resentment grew over alleged immoral personal conduct and what was seen as relentless efforts to benefit only family members. Frustrated voters ultimately chose the BJD as an alternative. There is now a possibility that the creation of a new regional party could suit the BJP. The BJP’s central leadership is said to understand the reasons behind the seemingly widening rift between Pandian and Bobby, as such developments are likely to benefit the saffron party. The BJP is expected to seize every opportunity necessary to keep the BJD politically relevant. The BJP recognises that regional parties command a substantial vote base in the state. If the BJD weakens or ceases to exist, those votes are likely to shift to the opposition. There appears to be little chance of this vote base moving to Congress.