New Delhi: India is likely to receive above-normal rainfall during the second half of the monsoon season (August and September), the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said Thursday.
Most parts of the country, except the Northeast and adjoining areas of eastern India, are expected to record normal rainfall in August, said IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra during an online press conference.
Rainfall in September is likely to be above normal, he said.
India received above-normal rainfall during the first half of the monsoon season (June and July), with some states, particularly Himachal Pradesh, experiencing flash floods.
“Overall, above-normal rainfall (106 percent of the Long Period Average of 422.8 mm) is most likely over the country during the second half of the southwest monsoon season,” Mohapatra said.
“Geographically, normal to above-normal rainfall is most likely across most regions, except for many parts of the northeast and adjoining eastern India, isolated regions of central India and southwestern areas of the peninsular region, where below-normal rainfall is expected.”
Mohapatra said subdued rainfall is expected over the next two weeks; however, the conditions do not meet the criteria for a “break monsoon phase”, which refers to a temporary lull in rainfall during the monsoon when the trough shifts toward the foothills of the Himalayas.
The country received 474.3 mm of rainfall against a normal of 445.8 mm from June 1 to July 31, a surplus of six per cent.
The country recorded 624 very heavy rainfall events and 76 extremely heavy rainfall events, the lowest figures in the last five years, the IMD chief said.
“In Northeast India, this is the fifth consecutive year of below-normal rainfall. Over the last 30 years, a declining trend in rainfall activity has been observed in the northeastern states,” he added.
According to Mohapatra, good rainfall in July was due to favourable Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) conditions in the latter half of the month and the formation of six low-pressure systems spanning 28 days.
Of these, four systems intensified into depressions. Among them, three formed over land and moved from Gangetic West Bengal/Northern Bay of Bengal to Rajasthan, triggering frequent heavy to very heavy rainfall and even extremely heavy rainfall on some days, the IMD said.
ENSO-neutral conditions are currently prevailing and are expected to continue until October. Post-monsoon, weak La Niña conditions may develop, the IMD said.
In May, the IMD forecasted that India would receive 106 per cent of the long-period average rainfall of 87 cm during the June–September monsoon season. Rainfall ranging between 96 and 104 per cent of this 50-year average is considered “normal”.
The monsoon plays a critical role in India’s agriculture sector, which supports the livelihood of around 42 per cent of the population and contributes 18.2 per cent to the national GDP. It is also crucial for replenishing reservoirs used for drinking water and power generation.
PTI
