The world is dangerously poised to cross the limit of accepted level of global warming. It is only a few tenths of a degree away from the goal of restricting warming to 1.5 degree C above pre-industrial levels. It means within a decade the world will shoot past the target. This is no idle conjecture, but a revelation based on evidence by leading scientists on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The recently released report of the IPCC, an outcome of eight years’ work, however, does not give up hope nor does it paint a doomsday scenario. It says it is still possible to stay within 1.5 degree C. But, it all depends on government actions in the next few years to keep greenhouse gas emissions within permissible limits so that temperatures fall back to safe levels, instead of rising dangerously.
While it is known that developed countries have been contributing most to the catastrophic climate change, billions of poor people, who may be partly at fault, are bearing the brunt of the suffering in the form of flash floods, cyclones and other natural calamities which have already taken a toll on hundreds of thousands of lives across the globe. The emphasis of the report is on human efforts to deal with the situation. It says just as human activity has warmed the atmosphere, so also it is human action that can bring temperatures down. It has fixed the goal of cutting carbon pollution and fossil fuel use by nearly two-thirds by 2035 so as to keep the situation under reasonable control. This means a categorical ‘No’ to new fossil fuel exploration and stopping use of coal, oil and gas by rich countries by 2040.
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The efforts of the IPCC scientists have succeeded in informing the world that climate change has not simply to do with increase in temperature, melting of ice and rise of the sea level. Apart from that it causes human disasters and makes life on earth unbearable with food insecurity, water shortages, increased mortality, higher transmission of diseases, and displacement. The damage is immense and it hits the poorest populations the hardest as they have limited means to cushion themselves against the effects of climate change. Almost half of humanity now lives in ‘contexts that are highly vulnerable to climate change’, according to the report.
It would be suicidal to take the report lightly and dismiss it as an academic exercise. The way people in several countries, including India, Pakistan and Turkey faced flash floods last monsoon and Europe and the USA suffered from sweltering heat during last summer, the impact of climate change was brought home to the world in the most concrete manner possible. Even if it appears that the goal of keeping global warming to 1.5 degree C is difficult to achieve, adopting an ostrich-like policy pretending that not much harm would really be done would spell doom for humanity. When this goal of restricting global rise in temperature was set in 2015, in the Paris Agreement, the challenge was immense. During the past eight years, this challenge has only increased but it is also matched by growing insensitivity to the problem by governments and the people at large. Take for example India where the average population has been totally swayed by the governmental argument that, as a poor nation, India cannot do much and it is for the rich nations to compensate whatever it needs to do. Till such time, both the Indian government and the populace are happily going about their normal life and activities and India will soon become the country with the largest number of coal fired power production units. This attitude can only hasten the process of destruction.
What is of paramount importance is concerted international effort and each country, rich or poor, must shoulder its share of responsibility for reducing the emission of greenhouse gases. This can be done by bringing down the use of fossil fuels, which are responsible for 80 per cent of CO2 emissions.
Political decision-makers must stop hiding behind false narratives about climate change impact. They need to tell the truth so that the people can become aware that the way they lived the last few decades through reckless consumption of fossil fuel will no longer be possible in the coming years. Urbanisation, dietary habits and travel by using fuel need to be redefined.
The developed countries have money and technology to stop the planet from burning up. Yet climate financing has been woefully inadequate. The IPCC estimates that investment in climate mitigation and adaptation is three to six times lower than the need to meet the goal of limiting temperature rises to 1.5 degree C. Trillions of dollars of investments over the years are needed to save this planet for human existence. Governments have to rise to the occasion.
