Geneva: Iran and the US are prepared to meet Thursday in Geneva for nuclear negotiations, talks viewed as a last chance for diplomacy, as America has gathered a fleet of aircraft and warships in the Middle East to pressure Tehran into a deal.
US President Donald Trump wants a deal to constrain Iran’s nuclear programme, and he sees an opportunity while the country is struggling at home with growing dissent following nationwide protests last month.
Iran, meanwhile, has maintained it wants to continue to enrich uranium even as its program sits in ruins following Trump’s ordering an attack in June on three of the Islamic Republic’s nuclear sites.
If an American attack happens, Iran has said all US military bases in the Mideast would be considered legitimate targets, putting at risk tens of thousands of American service members.
Iran has also threatened to attack Israel following a bruising 12-day war last year, meaning a regional war again could erupt across the Middle East.
“There would be no victory for anybody – it would be a devastating war,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told India Today in an interview filmed Wednesday just before he flew to Geneva.
“Since the Americans’ bases are scattered throughout different places in the region, then unfortunately, perhaps the whole region would be engaged and be involved, so it is a very terrible scenario.”
Araghchi again will sit across from Steve Witkoff, a billionaire real estate developer and friend of Trump who serves as a special Mideast envoy for the president. The two men held multiple rounds of talks last year that collapsed after Israel launched its war against Iran in June.
These latest talks are again being mediated by Oman, a sultanate on the eastern edge of the Arabian Peninsula that’s long served as an interlocutor between Iran and the West.
This time, Trump has pushed to halt Iran’s enrichment of uranium entirely, as well as address Tehran’s ballistic missile programme and its support of regional militant forces. Iran has maintained that the talks must remain focused only on nuclear issues.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters Wednesday that Iran is “always trying to rebuild elements” of its nuclear programme. He said that Tehran is not enriching uranium right now, “but they’re trying to get to the point where they ultimately can.”
Iran has said it hasn’t enriched since June, but it has blocked inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency from visiting the sites America bombed.
Satellite photos analysed by The Associated Press also show activity at two of those sites, suggesting Iran is trying to assess and potentially recover material there.
The West and the IAEA say Iran had a nuclear weapons programme until 2003. Before the June attack, it had been enriching uranium up to 60% purity – a short, technical step away from weapons-grade levels of 90%.
US intelligence agencies assess that Iran has yet to restart a weapons programme, but has “undertaken activities that better position it to produce a nuclear device, if it chooses to do so.”
While insisting its program is peaceful, Iranian officials have threatened to pursue the bomb in recent years.
“The principle’s very simple: Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon,” US Vice President JD Vance told reporters at the White House on Wednesday.
Vance said Trump is “sending those negotiators to try to address that problem” and “wants to address that problem diplomatically.”
“But, of course, the president has other options as well,” Vance added.
If the talks fail, uncertainty hangs over the timing of any possible attack.
If the aim of potential military action is to pressure Iran to make concessions in nuclear negotiations, it’s not clear whether limited strikes would work.
If the goal is to remove Iran’s leaders, that will likely commit the US to a larger, longer military campaign. There has been no public sign of planning for what would come next, including the potential for chaos in Iran.
There is also uncertainty about what any military action could mean for the wider region. Tehran could retaliate against the American-allied nations of the Persian Gulf or Israel. Oil prices have risen in recent days in part due to those concerns, with benchmark Brent crude now about $70 a barrel.
Iran in the last round of talks said it briefly halted traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow mouth of the Persian Gulf through which a fifth of all oil traded passes.
Satellite photos shot Tuesday by Planet Labs PBC and analysed by The Associated Press appeared to show that American vessels typically docked in Bahrain, the home of the US Navy’s 5th Fleet, were all out at sea.
The 5th Fleet referred questions to the US military’s Central Command, which declined to comment. Before Iran’s attack on Qatar in June, the 5th Fleet similarly scattered its ships at sea to protect against a potential attack.
