New Delhi: Widespread mask use and data-driven social distancing measures in India may help prevent over 200,000 COVID-19 disease related deaths in India by December 1. This report has been presented in a study. The report states that COVID-19 disease will continue to pose a major public health threat in India. Without masks and social distancing, the Indian population will really be vulnerable in the fight against COVID-19.
The study has been done by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington in the US. The study suggests that there is an opportunity to further limit the toll of COVID-19 in India.
It highlights the critical need for people to comply with face mask use, social distancing, and other COVID-19 prevention guidelines. These guidelines have been provided by the public health authorities.
“India’s epidemic is far from over, as a large proportion of the population is still susceptible,” IHME Director, Christopher Murray, said. “In fact, our modelling shows there are a wide range of potential outcomes. It all depends on the actions that governments and individuals take today, tomorrow, and into the near future. Mask wearing and social distancing are crucial to mitigate the spread of the virus,” Murray explained.
Gautam Menon a professor of Ashoka University in Haryana agreed with Murray. He said it is certainly true that mask wearing and distancing measures will significantly slow the progress of the disease. In the process the vulnerable population will be protected.
“My first view is that the IHME model predicts a peak in infections only by early to mid-December. Peak numbers of close to six million new infections per day and total deaths of about 500,000 in the ‘no intervention’ scenario,” Menon said.
However, he noted that these numbers appear inflated compared to other estimates and models. The other estimates suggest a peak that should happen well before mid-December. “Given that, the estimate of lives saved (in the study) may be on the excessive side,” Menon noted.
The researchers in the IHME study noted that India’s response to COVID-19 has produced some significant successes. The response highlights the opportunity to limit the pandemic’s toll in India.
The researchers explained that containment measures have helped in preventing the spread of COVID-19. It said measures like intensive contact tracing, widespread testing and mask-wearing have helped reduce the spread of the virus. Also social distancing has played a role in restricting the disease.
Their modelling study found that, in the best-case scenario, India can expect approximately 2,91,145 total COVID-19 deaths by December 1. This scenario assumes that face mask usage increases to near-universal (95 per cent) levels and that six-week, state-level lockdowns are re-imposed if the daily death rate exceeds 8 per million in the states.
On the other hand, if lockdown restrictions continue to ease up and face mask usage remains at current levels, India can expect approximately 4,92,380 total deaths by December 1, according to the study.
In this scenario, the researchers said, 13 states would each have over 10,000 total COVID-19 deaths by that time, while currently only Maharashtra has crossed this threshold.
“India is at a tipping point. If hospitals in those states are unable to accommodate everyone needing COVID-19 care, the result will be more deaths and greater long-term harm to state and local economies,” Murray said.
The researchers said until there is a widely available vaccine against COVID-19, much of India’s population remains susceptible to the disease.
“Monitoring trends state-by-state, encouraging mask use, continuing social distancing and hygiene precautions, and using state-level or district-level lockdowns if needed can help save lives and minimise the impact of the pandemic on India’s health and economy,” the researchers said.
