Washington: US military has paused its airstrikes on Iran after nearly two weeks of intensifying bombing, while diplomatic efforts have pushed forward to try to avert a return to all-out war.
But it remains to be seen whether the US and Iran are at an inflection point in a mercurial conflict that will reach the five-month point Tuesday. President Donald Trump both has threatened more strikes and said talks are pressing on, all while brushing off concerns that rising gas prices tied to the fighting could hurt Republicans in November’s midterm elections.
Adding to the uncertainty is the impact of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s planned visit with Trump next week in Washington. Israel, which launched the war alongside the US on Feb 28, has been notably absent from the renewed American attacks over Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping corridor through which 20 per cent of the world’s oil normally flows.
“The Iranians understand that perhaps it could get worse because Israel could come into the conflict,” said Michael Singh, managing director at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. On the other hand, Israel’s lack of involvement so far “may signal to the Iranians that we’re looking to limit the conflict.”
Singh, who was senior Middle East director on the National Security Council during the George W. Bush administration, said he was hesitant to read too much into the lull in fighting.
“If it turns into a multiday pause, that’ll be something significant,” he said. “But it’s hard to know. Is it an operational pause? Is it a pause to allow for some kind of behind-the-scenes diplomacy?”
Mediators keep pressing their diplomatic efforts
A regional official involved in the mediation efforts said that concerted diplomacy was underway and that a pause in US strikes and Iranian counterstrikes on neighbouring countries hosting American forces was a “positive signal that helps their efforts to de-escalate.”
The official said that both the US and Iran want to return to the interim ceasefire deal and that a compromise, which is being negotiated now, centres around having Iran run vessel transit through the Strait of Hormuz with fewer restrictions on ships. The official was not authorized to discuss the matter and spoke on condition of anonymity.
Iran put a chokehold on the narrow Persian Gulf waterway when the war began by firing on tankers and freighters. In turn, oil prices have soared during the conflict, which has been unpopular with many Americans, and could leave some Republican lawmakers vulnerable in November.
Following the signing of an interim ceasefire deal in June, a battle for control over the strait has erupted. Iran demanded that ships use a route near its coastline and said it can potentially charge fees. Ships were increasingly navigating a southern route along the coast of Oman under a U.S. overwatch operation when Iran attacked some vessels.
The US renewed attacks on Iran’s coastal defenses, aiming to blunt Tehran’s ability to strike ships in the strait. The Trump administration then expanded its targets, hitting bridges and infrastructure in the south and striking deeper into the center of Iran.
Singh said the strikes appear to be an attempt to push Iran back to the negotiating table. Now, he said, “the question would be: What kind of messages, if any, is the Iranian regime sending through diplomatic channels? Have those messages changed? Do they seem more eager to return to talks?”
Among the challenges the US faces is the fractured leadership in Iran, with different factions vying for control, Singh said, something that Trump administration officials have also pointed to. The people in charge in Iran may worry that compromising with the US will be seen as weakness and could loosen their grip on power.
Whatever the case, both the US and Iran need the strait to reopen for their own economic reasons.
“But they have very different conceptions of under what conditions, under whose control,” Singh said. “So we have to get to some kind of stable equilibrium on those questions before you’re going to see a longer period of quiet. I think this effort to negotiate with words and also to negotiate with force is going to continue until we reach that equilibrium.”
Trump issues threats but also talks up diplomacy
Despite the lull in fighting, tensions are high in the region.
Yemen’s Houthi rebels said Saturday that they fired missiles and drones at Saudi Arabia in response to Saudi airstrikes on the strategic Red Sea city of Hodeida. The Iran-backed rebels say they have closed the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which has become even more vital for Saudi oil exports since the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz.
The US military also is enforcing its naval blockade of Iranian ports, saying it disabled a Mozambique-flagged ship in the Gulf of Oman on Friday after the vessel tried to violate the blockade and ignored warnings.
Trump also has kept up the threats against Iran even as he spotlighted diplomacy. Asked about his exit strategy Friday, Trump said there are two ways.
“You can just keep doing exactly what we’re doing and take them apart piece by piece. We could do it in a more rapid fashion, which we might do,” he told reporters in the Oval Office. “Or we can negotiate with them, which we’re also doing right now.”
While Trump said he doesn’t think Iran is “ready yet” to make a deal, he also asserted that “I think they’re getting more and more serious as the days go by, for maybe the obvious reason.”
Trump met Friday with top national security aides to discuss the situation with Iran and whether the administration should maintain the current course or escalate military attacks, according to a US official who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations. No US strikes occurred overnight in Iran after 13 consecutive nights.
Trump insisted Friday that he was “not in a hurry” to wrap things up because of the approaching elections, in which voters, angry about high food and gasoline prices, could vote his Republican Party out of control of Congress.
“Despite what everyone says about the election, I’m not in a hurry,” he said.
