By Rajdeep Sardesai
Soon after taking over as BJP president in 2014, Amit Shah spoke of his vision of a ‘Congress-mukt Bharat’. At the time, it sounded more like political bravado than a credible roadmap. Twelve years on, as Union home minister, Shah may well argue that the project has moved a step further—towards what could be described as an ‘Opposition-mukt Bharat’.
If there is one unmistakable message from Verdict 2026, it is this: the BJP today occupies a more dominant position in Indian politics than at any point since Narendra Modi became prime minister in 2014. At first glance, that may seem counterintuitive.
After all, in both Tamil Nadu and Kerala, non-BJP, non NDA governments have come to power. But these are exceptions that prove the rule. Tamil Nadu remains sui generis—perhaps the only state where a first-day, first-show film star-turned-politician can still deliver a blockbuster electoral debut.
Kerala, meanwhile, continues to march to its own rhythm: a state where the BJP is yet to emerge as a serious contender for power, even if its three-seat breakthrough marks a symbolic foothold. Step back, though, and the national picture is stark.
The BJP and its allies are now in power in 21 of India’s 28 states. From the Arabian Sea to the Bay of Bengal, the political map is overwhelmingly saffron, with Jharkhand the lone outlier. This is not just electoral success—it is political saturation. What makes this moment even more significant is the speed of the turnaround.
Just two years ago, the 2024 Lok Sabha elections had raised hopes that India’s drift towards one-party dominance had been arrested. A resurgent Congress, alongside a loose coalition of regional forces under the INDIA alliance banner, seemed to have reopened the space for competitive, multi-party politics. That window has now decisively shut.
In the last 24 months, key constituents of that Opposition bloc have suffered successive setbacks. The Shiv Sena (UBT) was routed in Maharashtra. The AAP lost Delhi. RJD was diminished in Bihar. Naveen Patnaik’s long, unbroken tenure in Odisha has come to an abrupt end. And now, two of the most formidable regional citadels—the DMK in Tamil Nadu and the TMC in West Bengal—have been breached.
Even Nitish Kumar, once the principal architect of Opposition unity, finds himself politically tethered to the BJP. This is not a series of isolated defeats. It is a pattern—and a warning. Part of the explanation lies in the complacency of regional forces. Too many leaders treat ed their vote banks as fixed deposits—secure, predictable, and always encashable.
Mamata Banerjee, after three terms in West Bengal, appeared convinced that her Muslim-Mahila (wom an) support base would hold firm. In doing so, she seemed to underestimate both the depth of anti-incumbency and the scale of a parallel Hindu consolidation.
Similarly, the DMK, long accustomed to the rhythms of Dravidian duopoly politics, did not fully grasp the disruptive potential of Vijay’s entry until it was too late. Complacency, when combined with political arrogance, is often fatal. The Congress, for its part, misread the 2024 verdict. Surviving the BJP juggernaut was interpreted as a revival.
But a tally of 99 seats against the BJP’s 240 was less a comeback than a reprieve. The deeper organisational weaknesses—drift, inertia, and a lingering sense of entitlement—remained unaddressed. Worse, instead of consolidating Opposition unity, Congress and its allies allowed competitive ambitions to override collective strategy.
For what distinguishes the BJP in its current avatar is not just ideological clarity or leadership centrality, but its evolution into the most formidable electoral machine in post-independence India. It is relentless, adaptive, and unencumbered by sentiment.
No terrain is considered too hostile; no expansion too ambitious. West Bengal offers the clearest illustration. From zero seats in 2011 to a 200-plus tally in 2026 is not merely an electoral leap—it is a sustained, 15-year political project.
Its final push resembled a high-intensity campaign that left little to chance. A combination of organisational depth, narrative control, and the strategic use of institutional leverage, be it the EC or ED, ensured that the Mamata government was caught off guard. In the process, the limits of cultural sub-nationalism as a political shield were also exposed. Mamata’s 2021 success had rested on positioning herself as “Bengal’s daughter” against “outsiders” from Delhi.
But such identity-driven narratives have a shelf life. This time, the BJP reframed the contest—shifting the discourse towards illegal immigration, local corruption, and governance fatigue. Whether this signals the end of the traditional regional satrap model is still uncertain. But there is little doubt that Indian politics is undergoing a structural shift.
The balance of power has tilted decisively towards a centralised, leader-driven formation capable of exerting influence across state boundaries. This marks a clear departure from the coalition era from 1991 to 2014, when regional parties could both anchor their states and dictate terms in Delhi. In such an environment, the Opposition’s challenge is not merely electoral—it is existential.
Unless it can forge a shared agenda, a common narrative, and a minimum level of trust, its space will continue to shrink. With the 2029 general elections just three years away—and a series of crucial state contests in between—the BJP’s momentum is unlikely to slow. Which brings us back to Amit Shah’s original vision.
The idea of a ‘Congress-mukt Bharat’ may already be partially realised. The larger question now is whether India is drifting towards something more consequential: an ‘Opposition-mukt Bharat’. If that trajectory is to be altered, the response must come sooner rather than later. For what is at stake is not just electoral balance, but the foundational idea of India as a diverse, multi-party democracy. Postscript: Shortly after the Bengal result, I asked a BJP leader, “What next?” He smiled and said, “We’ve never had a BJP chief minister in Punjab… so who knows?” Barely has one frontier been crossed, the next target is already in sight.
The writer is a senior journalist and author.
