In a landmark verdict, the Brazilian Supreme Federal Court, that country’s highest judicial authority, on 11 September convicted former president Jair Bolsonaro for attempting a coup d’état following his defeat to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the October 2022 presidential elections. After a lengthy and rigorous trial, the court found him guilty and sentenced him to 27 years and three months in prison—a punishment reflecting the gravity of the charges. Six high-ranking officers, including three generals, were also convicted along with Bolsonaro. Given the former president’s age and fragile health at 70, the sentence may still be adjusted.
Nevertheless, this verdict marks a historic first: never before in Brazil’s turbulent political history has an attempted coup resulted in conviction. The decision carried particular symbolic weight because the deciding vote came from Judge Cármen Lúcia, the lone woman on the five-judge panel. For, Bolsonaro is infamous for his misogyny, especially his disparaging remarks toward women.
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Despite pressure from Bolsonaro’s allies to push for an amnesty law, the ruling sends a clear message. Democracy is safeguarded at the ballot box, not through the dismantling of institutions. The country’s history makes this judgement especially significant. From 1964 to 1985, a Right-Wing military dictatorship ruled over Brazil with repression, torture, and extrajudicial killings—all backed by US administrations. A National Truth Commission later documented these crimes, but no perpetrators were ever convicted. Civilian rule was restored in the 1980s while Bolsonaro’s presidency re-empowered the armed forces politically, reopening old wounds.
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Bolsonaro’s conviction carries implications far beyond Brazil’s borders. During his presidency, he aligned himself closely with US President Donald Trump, who at the time was serving his first term in office. As Bolsonaro’s trial unfolded, Trump denounced the proceedings as a “witch hunt” and imposed 50 per cent punitive tariffs on Brazilian goods in retaliation. The 11 September guilty-verdict was also swiftly condemned by the US as Secretary of State Marco Rubio accused Brazil of engaging in “political persecution”—language commonly used by Far-Right groups worldwide to discredit judicial rulings. Rubio went ahead, threatening more reprisals. Ironically, such heavy-handed tactics may risk driving Brazil closer to Beijing, a result Washington should want to avoid.
Attention now turns to Brazil’s 2026 presidential election. Unless Bolsonaro succeeds in overturning his conviction and accompanying election ban, he will be sidelined from the race. Lula has yet to confirm his candidacy, but he would enter as the frontrunner. A runoff against Right-Wing contender Tarcísio de Freitas, a former army captain often seen as Bolsonaro’s political heir, could nonetheless be tightly contested. Bolsonaro’s conviction also risks casting him as a political martyr, a role that could galvanize support for figures who embrace his brand of politics. Indeed, in the days before the verdict, roughly 40,000 of his supporters rallied in Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo, underscoring his continued influence. Still, the Supreme Court’s ruling represents a powerful statement: despite ongoing polarisation, the likelihood of successful challenges to Brazil’s democratic order has been sharply reduced.
This contrasts sharply with the US experience. While Brazil held a former leader accountable for subverting democracy, Trump has evaded prosecution despite orchestrating a relentless campaign against the 2020 election outcome which he called an “electoral fraud” without providing an iota of evidence. The 6 January 2021 attack on the US Capitol, the most brazen assault on American democracy in modern times, ended not in accountability but in presidential pardons for many involved.
The 11 September Brazil ruling is not an end but a beginning. The South American country remains deeply polarised, mirroring the divisions that have consumed the US and many other democracies including India. To be admired here is the spine shown by Brazil’s judiciary. In the face of all adversities it proves one thing for sure: the Brazilian justice system stands firm and unwavering.
