COP 30 Under A Cloud

UN climate talks, known as Conference of Parties or COP, have begun in Brazil from 10 November. With the participation of about 50,000 delegates from almost every country, this marks the 30th edition of the conference known as COP 30. The conference is to continue till November 21.

The administration of US President Donald Trump is a notable absentee, though the White House has stated it does intend to send some high-level representatives to the summit. About 10 years ago, the signing of the Paris Agreement raised high hopes in the fight against climate change. But now the enthusiasm has largely ebbed. One of the agreement’s most ambitious goals was to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. But it is on the verge of being exceeded, while 2025 is set to be one of the hottest years in history.

The US, the world’s second-largest emitter of CO2, is all set to withdraw from the Paris Agreement with its President Donald Trump denigrating, in the worst possible language, the very rationale of the fight against climate change. Barely two months ago, speaking at the United Nations, he called the global initiative to reduce carbon emissions and use of fossil fuel as “the greatest con job ever perpetrated on the world.” Not content with weakening multilateral climate action, he is now trying to draw other countries into his denial. In such a bleak backdrop, the challenge for this COP is to send the message across that despite the virtual backstabbing by Trump, momentum in the fight against climate change will not be decelerated. The summit could try tell the world that the commitments would be realized, funding promises might be honoured, and the shift from fossil fuels to low-carbon energy sources must finally begin. It is necessary that this effort remains unaltered and does not get derailed just because one temporary politician, although very important, wants to play the role of the disrupter. There are, no doubt, immense difficulties by way of shifting budget priorities toward rearmament due to global tension and the slowing down of climate diplomacy in the absence of global leadership.

The European Union’s determination is beginning to flag. It still remains the only major bloc to have reduced its CO2 emissions in 2024, but its resolution to implement the anti-climate change agenda is getting weakened under growing populist pressure and the threat posed by Russia and the protracted war it is waging in Ukraine. This is also impacting China’s willingness to take over the baton from the US and lead the world in the fight. Beijing’s insistence on considering itself a developing country to minimize its responsibilities shows it is no longer willing to position itself as a leader in the energy transition. In such a situation Brazil – the venue of COP30 – has a vital role to play. The country can use its experience in environmental diplomacy and make willing countries committed to multilateralism and try to bridge the gap between the Global South and North. But Brazil itself is in a dilemma, caught between its climate commitments and growing ambitions in oil extraction. Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva called for “planning a just way to undo deforestation, overcome fossil fuels and mobilize the resources needed for those aims.” That promise has yet to be fulfilled.

World leaders may need to realise that the fight against climate change is no longer a theoretical proposition, but a grim reality as was shown by the recent deaths and devastation caused by Hurricane Melissa in Jamaica and other Caribbean countries and typhoon Fung Wong in Asia killing about 200 people in the Philippines and Vietnam. Last week’s five-day rainfall in Jamaica was made twice as likely by higher temperatures, according to initial findings from studies by experts. Jamaica’s Prime Minister Andrew Holness estimates that the damage in his country is roughly equivalent to one-third of the country’s GDP. It has to be a wake-up call and pretending that there is no imminent danger as is being done by the fossil fuel lobby and its latest champion, the US’ President Trump, is nothing but a wish for total destruction.