It looks like the die is cast in the five states that go for assembly polls in February-March. The people’s verdict in all these states — UP, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Goa and Manipur — is a long way away to materialise, but the mood is clearly built.
The campaigns are likely to effect substantial, but not major changes, in the people’s mood. While there is no real scope for any prediction as of now, as predictions in the past have gone haywire, what is clear now is the ruling BJP at the Centre will have a hard task retaining power in Punjab and Goa — the two states that are now with them.
It would also be a big question whether it can retain the support it garnered in Uttar Pradesh the 2014 general elections when the party literally swept the state polls. The die in UP, however, is also caste.
The last-minute cobbling of an alliance by the Samajwadi Party of Akhilesh Yadav and the Congress has changed political equations in UP. It is too early to say whether this will be a winning combination, but the fact is that there is a groundswell of support for Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav for the reason that he is seen as the ‘fall guy’ vis-a-vis the alleged machinations of the old guard in the party led by his father and two uncles.
At the same time, fact remains that Akhilesh remained a shadow of his father all through the past five years of his chief-ministership, when the law and order situation in parts of the state went for a toss. In recent weeks, he has been traveling the interiors of the state extensively to lay foundation stones for various last minute ‘developmental projects’.
It is also said that the youths and large sections of women in the state favour the CM for his ‘good boy’ image — which might compensate for his lack of effective action as CM. The fight between the SP-Congress combine and the BJP might be close. On the other hand, the Bahujan Samaj Party of Mayawati does not seem to be taking a lead in the campaign stage but one can never underestimate Mayawati.
The fight in Uttarakhand is shaping up in a way that there is in part the anti-incumbency factor affecting the Congress government, while the ill effects of demonetisation and the lack of strong leaders for the BJP in the state might work to the disadvantage of the BJP — the main rival for power against the ruling party there.
In Punjab, the Congress is in a somewhat confident mood in the backdrop of large-scale allegations of corruption and nepotism that plagued the father-son governance of Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal. Senior Badal is still a formidable force to contend with for the rival parties.
If the SAD-BJP combine retains power in the state, it would essentially be due to the people’s respect for the CM over and above the popularity that Congress leader Captain Amarinder Singh enjoys.
In Goa, the BJP is in a difficult situation. The only respectable leader for the party is Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar, a former state CM. The BJP has already started giving out vague hints that he could be brought back to the state as CM, hoping that this would clinch the deal in favour of the party in the upcoming hustings. In Manipur, it is said that the campaign might turn out to be a game of money over ideology, with the BJP seeming upbeat in this scenario.
