Tokyo: Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s governing coalition is almost certain to win a single-party majority in a key parliamentary election Sunday, NHK public television and other major networks say, citing their exit poll results.
NHK says Takaichi’s ruling coalition, led by her Liberal Democratic Party, could win more than two-thirds of the 465-seat lower house, the more powerful of the country’s two-chamber parliament.
The huge jump from the pre-election share could allow Takaichi to make progress on a right-wing agenda that aims to boost Japan’s economy and military capabilities as tensions grow with China, and she tries to nurture ties with Washington.
Takaichi took office in October as Japan’s first female leader.
Takaichi is hugely popular, but the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, which has governed Japan for most of the last seven decades, has struggled with funding and religious scandals. She called Sunday’s snap elections only after three months in office, hoping to turn that around before her popularity fades.
She wants to make progress on a right-wing agenda that aims to boost Japan’s economy and military capabilities as tensions grow with China. She also wants to nurture ties with her crucial US ally, and a sometimes unpredictable President Donald Trump.
Popular leader poised to win big
The ultraconservative Takaichi, who took office as Japan’s first female leader in October, pledged to “work, work, work,” and her style, which is seen as both playful and tough, has resonated with younger fans.
The latest surveys indicated a landslide win in the lower house for the LDP. The opposition, despite the formation of a new centrist alliance and a rising far-right, is seen as too splintered to be a real challenger.
Takaichi bet that her LDP party, together with its new partner, the Japan Innovation Party, would secure a majority in the 465-seat lower house, the more powerful of Japan’s two-chamber parliament.
If the LDP fails to win a majority, “I will step down,” she said.
Pushing right-wing policies
A big win by Takaichi’s coalition could mean a significant shift to the right in Japan’s security, immigration and other policies, with its right-wing partner JIP’s leader Hirofumi Yoshimura saying his party will serve as an “accelerator.”
Japan has recently seen far-right populists gain ground, such as the anti-globalist and surging nationalist party Sanseito.
Takaichi has pledged to revise security and defence policies by December to bolster Japan’s offensive military capabilities, lifting a ban on weapons exports and moving further away from the country’s postwar pacifist principles.
She has been pushing for tougher policies on foreigners, anti-espionage and other measures that resonate with a far-right audience, but ones that experts say could undermine civil rights.
Takaichi also wants to increase defence spending in response to Trump’s pressure on Japan to loosen its purse strings.
Nation-splitting policies are not clearly explained
Though Takaichi said she is seeking the public’s mandate for her “nation-splitting policies,” she avoided contentious issues such as ways to fund soaring military spending, how to fix diplomatic tension with China and other controversial issues.
In her campaign speeches, Takaichi enthusiastically talked about the need for “proactive” government spending to fund “crisis management investment and growth,” such as measures to strengthen economic security, technology and other industries. Takaichi also seeks to push tougher measures on immigration and foreigners, including stricter requirements for foreign property owners and a cap on foreign residents.
The snap election after only three months in office “underscores a problematic trend in Japanese politics in which political survival takes priority over substantive policy outcomes,” said Masato Kamikubo, a Ritsumeikan University politics professor. “Whenever the government attempts necessary but unpopular reforms … the next election looms.”
The impact of snow and younger voters is uncertain
There were some uncertainties. The hastily called election that gave little time for people to prepare invited complaints.
Sunday’s vote also coincided with fresh snowfall across the country, including in Tokyo. Record snowfall in northern Japan over the past few weeks blocked roads and was blamed for dozens of deaths nationwide.
Kazuki Ishihara, 54, said she voted for the LDP for stability and in hopes of something new under Takaichi. “I have some hope that she could do something” her predecessors could not.
A 50-year-old office worker, Yoshinori Tamada, said his interest is wages. “I think a lot when I look at my pay slip, and I cast my vote for a party that I believe I can trust in that regard.
